Can personality predict longitudinal study attrition? Evidence from a population-based sample of older adults

Participation attrition is a major problem in longitudinal studies. Systematic attrition can lead to selection biases,
incorrect inferences, and erroneous conclusions. The aim of this study was to investigate systematic attrition
related to personality traits in the longitudinal population-based HEalth, Ageing and Retirement Transitions
in Sweden (HEARTS) study (N=5913). Longitudinal study attrition was predicted by the Big Five personality
traits, i.e., openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism, using logistic
regression. Results revealed that higher extraversion and neuroticism, and lower agreeableness were independently
associated with an increased risk for attrition at one and two year follow-up. Our findings suggest that
personality can be a valuable source of information when accounting for systematic attrition in analyzes of
longitudinal studies.

参与失访是纵向研究中的核心问题之一。系统性失访可引发选择偏倚、错误推论与错误结论。本研究以基于人群的瑞典健康、老龄化与退休转型（HEARTS）纵向研究（N=5913）为对象，探讨与人格特质相关的系统性失访情况。本研究采用逻辑回归分析，基于大五人格（Big Five）特质——即开放性、尽责性、外倾性、宜人性与神经质——预测纵向研究中的失访风险。结果显示，在1年与2年随访阶段，更高的外倾性与神经质水平、更低的宜人性水平，均与失访风险升高存在独立关联。本研究结果表明，在纵向研究的分析过程中考量系统性失访因素时，人格特质可作为极具价值的参考信息来源。