Climate Solutions Explorer - downscaled country-level IAM scenarios

This is a pre-release dataset and is subject to change.

The Climate Solutions Explorer website maps and presents information about mitigation pathways, avoided climate impacts, vulnerabilities and risks arising from development and climate change. www.climate-solutions-explorer.eu

The Mitigation (and Summary) Dashboards present mitigation information, i.e. emissions, energy and carbon sequestration, for over 200 countries and 10 regions. To present data for all countries, Integrated Assessment Model runs from the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM model have been downscaled by using a methodology described in Sferra et al. 2021 [1]. The algorithm produces a range of pathways consistent with the underlying IAM-results, based on criteria such as historical data, planned capacities, country-available resource in the form of supply cost-curves, quality of governance as well as regional benchmarks based on IAM results. The data is provided from 2020 to 2070, for a limited set of variables used on the website.

The scenarios included are:

Current Policies: Current Policies scenarios here are based on the implementation of national mitigation targets implemented by country without any further strengthening of action. Expected to lead to 2.7 °C by 2100. The data is from the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1 GP_CurPol_T45 scenario.

NDCs Delayed Action to 2030: Assumes trajectory based on the implemented NDCs until 2030, and then reduces emissions typically in line with a globally 2°C by 2100. The data is from the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1 GP_NDC2030_T45 scenario.

Glasgow Pledges: "Glasgow Pledges" scenarios here are based on the pledges made by countries at the 2022 COP26 Glasgow Summit, and represent increased ambition, likely taking the world closer to below 2°C in 2100, but still some distance away from the aspirations of 1.5°C of the Paris Agreement. The data is from the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1 GP_Glasgow scenario.

Glasgow Pledges+: "Glasgow Pledges+" scenarios drops the NDC pledges and expands mid-century strategy pledges to net-zero for all countries and regions. The data is from the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1 GP_GlasgowP scenario.

Glasgow Pledges++: "Glasgow Pledges++" scenarios here aims at filling the gap between national mid-century strategies and the 1.5/2 °C global scenarios. This scenario builds upon the Glasgow+ scenario and anticipates the action (net-zero target year defined for each region) in 5 or 10 years (depending on the model’s time steps).  The data is from the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1 GP_GlasgowPP scenario.

[1] Sferra, F. et al. 2021. Downscaling IAMs results to the country level – a new algorithm. IIASA Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17501.

Release notes (v0.2)

This version brings improvements in:

harmonization data source, now done for 2018 using PRIMAP

calculation of Kyoto Gases for R10, and Kyoto Gases (incl. indirect AFOLU) for countries

addition of R10 and EU27 region data

Corrections to variable aggregation

本数据集处于预发布阶段，后续可能进行调整。

气候解决方案探索者网站（Climate Solutions Explorer）以可视化方式呈现与气候减缓路径、避免的气候影响、开发活动与气候变化引发的脆弱性及风险相关的信息，官网为www.climate-solutions-explorer.eu。

气候减缓（及汇总）仪表盘面向200余个国家及10个区域展示减排、能源与碳固存等气候减缓相关信息。为实现全球各国数据的呈现，研究团队采用Sferra等人2021年[1]所述方法，对MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM模型的综合评估模型（Integrated Assessment Model, IAM）运行结果进行降尺度处理。该算法基于历史数据、规划产能、以供应成本曲线形式呈现的国家可用资源、治理质量以及基于IAM结果的区域基准等标准，生成与基础IAM结果一致的一系列情景路径。数据集的时间跨度为2020年至2070年，涵盖网站所使用的有限一组变量。

本次包含的情景如下：

1. 当前政策情景（Current Policies）：本情景基于各国已实施的国家减缓目标，未进一步强化气候行动，预计到2100年全球升温2.7℃。数据来自MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1模型的GP_CurPol_T45情景。
2. 国家自主贡献（Nationally Determined Contributions, NDC）延迟至2030年行动情景（NDCs Delayed Action to 2030）：本情景假设各国在2030年前沿用已实施的国家自主贡献轨迹，此后减排路径符合全球2100年升温2℃的目标。数据来自MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1模型的GP_NDC2030_T45情景。
3. 格拉斯哥承诺情景（Glasgow Pledges）：本情景基于各国在2022年COP26格拉斯哥峰会作出的承诺，代表了更高的气候行动雄心，有望使全球2100年升温控制在2℃以内，但仍与《巴黎协定》1.5℃的温控目标存在一定差距。数据来自MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1模型的GP_Glasgow情景。
4. 强化版格拉斯哥承诺情景（Glasgow Pledges+）：本情景取消国家自主贡献承诺，将各国及区域的中期战略承诺扩展至净零排放。数据来自MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1模型的GP_GlasgowP情景。
5. 进一步强化版格拉斯哥承诺情景（Glasgow Pledges++）：本情景旨在填补各国中期战略与1.5℃/2℃全球温控情景之间的缺口。该情景基于格拉斯哥承诺+情景构建，将行动时间提前5年或10年（具体取决于模型的时间步长），并为每个区域设定了净零排放目标年份。数据来自MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1模型的GP_GlasgowPP情景。

[1] Sferra, F. 等, 2021. 将综合评估模型结果降尺度至国家层面——一种新算法. 国际应用系统分析研究所（IIASA）报告. 奥地利拉克森堡, 国际应用系统分析研究所. https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17501.

版本发布说明（v0.2）
本版本在以下方面进行了优化：

1. 统一化数据源：现基于PRIMAP数据集完成2018年数据的统一化处理
2. 新增R10区域及国家层面的京都温室气体（Kyoto Gases）核算，以及包含间接农业、林业和其他土地利用（Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use, AFOLU）排放的京都温室气体核算
3. 新增R10与EU27区域的数据
4. 修正了变量聚合逻辑