Replication Data for: Evaluating (In)Experience in Congressional Elections

From the 1980s to the mid 2010s, three-quarters of newly elected members to the U.S. House of Representatives had previous elected experience; only half of freshmen elected from 2016 to 2020 held prior office. In this paper, we investigate emergence- and success-driven explanations for the declining proportion of experienced officeholders entering Congress. In our analyses, we find that the advantages traditionally afforded experienced candidates are waning. First, we show that inexperienced candidates' emergence patterns have changed; amateurs are increasingly apt to emerge in the same kinds of contests as their experienced counterparts. We then show that experienced candidates have lost their fundraising edge, and that---for certain kinds of candidates---the value of elected experience itself has declined. Lastly, we identify other kinds of candidate characteristics as strong predictors for success in modern elections. We demonstrate that these electorally advantageous identities overwhelmingly belong to candidates who lack elected experience.

1980年代至2010年代中期，美国众议院（U.S. House of Representatives）的新当选议员中，有四分之三曾具备公职任职经验；而2016年至2020年当选的新任议员里，仅有半数拥有此前的公职履职经历。本文针对美国国会（Congress）新进议员中具备公职任职经验者占比持续下滑的现象，从候选人参选涌现与选举成功两个维度，探究其背后的驱动性解释。经分析，我们发现传统上赋予资深候选人的竞争优势正逐步减弱。其一，无经验候选人的参选涌现模式已发生转变：业余参选者如今愈发倾向于在与资深候选人同类型的选举竞选中参选。其二，资深候选人已丧失其筹款竞争优势；且针对部分特定候选人群体而言，公职任职经验本身的价值已然下降。最后，我们识别出其他类型的候选人特质，可作为现代选举中选举成功的强有力预测因子。研究表明，这些在选举中具备竞争优势的身份特质，绝大多数都属于缺乏公职任职经验的候选人。