Budgetary Cuts and Public Evaluation of Federal Government

The US federal government has begun a very public and aggressive effort to cut federal spending. Several cutback strategies have been proposed in guidance from OMB and OPM (See Memo “Guidance on Agency RIF and Reorganization Plans” February 26, 2025). Layered on top of these efforts to reduce spending are tensions between federal agencies and federally elected officials on who has the power to determine the reductions. In this study, we aim to understand how the public evaluates the federal government as it engages in cutback efforts. There is a growing literature on how the public evaluates government based on financial management strategies. These studies have examined general purpose local governments and school districts. We extend this work to see how the public evaluates the federal government’s efforts at spending reductions by a 43 vignette experiment design. Most academic work at the federal government examine spending by policy area, not necessarily financial strategies. We examine four cutback strategies: reductions to personnel, reductions to real property footprint, reductions to external consultants and contractors, and reductions of government services to only functions explicitly required by statute. To assess how responsibility for the cut impacts public evaluations, we also examine if the proposed cut comes from agency heads, elected officials, or both agency heads and elected officials. We will conduct this survey experiment via Prolific in Summer 2025.

美国联邦政府已启动一项公开且力度强劲的联邦开支削减行动。美国管理和预算办公室（Office of Management and Budget, OMB）与美国人事管理办公室（Office of Personnel Management, OPM）在相关指引中提出了多项削减开支策略，详见2025年2月26日发布的《机构减员裁员（Reduction in Force, RIF）与重组计划指引》备忘录。在上述开支削减行动之外，联邦机构与联邦民选官员之间就谁有权决定削减方案这一问题产生了分歧。本研究旨在探究公众如何评价联邦政府推行的开支削减行动。现有研究日益关注公众如何基于财政管理策略评价政府表现，过往相关研究多聚焦于通用型地方政府与学区。本研究将该研究脉络延伸至联邦政府层面，采用4×3情景实验（vignette experiment）设计，考察公众对联邦政府开支削减行动的评价。现有针对联邦政府的学术研究多围绕政策领域的开支展开，而非财政削减策略本身。本次研究考察四类削减策略：人员裁减、办公不动产占用规模缩减、外部咨询与承包服务削减，以及仅保留法律明确规定的政府服务职能。为评估削减责任归属对公众评价的影响，本研究还将考察削减方案的提出主体：机构负责人、民选官员，或二者共同提出。本研究将于2025年夏季通过Prolific平台开展本次调查实验。