Nexus between foreign direct investment, trade openness, and carbon emissions: fresh insights using innovative methodologies

Previous research has explored the relationship between carbon emissions, trade openness, and foreign direct investment (FDI), but these studies have not specifically examined carbon emissions using sector-level data. This paper expands upon the existing body of literature by employing a threshold regression approach, utilizing the intensity of carbon emissions as a primary variable to scrutinize the effects of FDI and trade openness on carbon emissions at a sectoral level. Our findings indicate that the impact is contingent upon the chosen thresholds, thereby underscoring the influence of foreign trade openness and FDI on carbon emissions within the industrial sector. The effect of FDI on sector-specific industrial carbon emissions is not constant, with the influence coefficient varying over time. In contrast, trade openness positively and negatively impacts carbon emissions. Specifically, increased foreign trade openness leads to a decrease in carbon emissions in less carbon-intensive sectors. Factors such as the intensity of economic activity, employment levels, independent technical innovation, and per capita GDP significantly influence carbon emissions within industrial sectors.

既往研究已围绕碳排放、贸易开放度与外商直接投资（Foreign Direct Investment，FDI）之间的关联展开探讨，但此类研究尚未采用行业层面数据针对碳排放开展专门分析。本文采用门槛回归方法，以碳排放强度作为核心解释变量，细致考察FDI与贸易开放度对行业层面碳排放的影响，以此拓展现有研究范畴。研究结果表明，该影响效应取决于所设定的门槛值，由此凸显贸易开放度与FDI对工业部门碳排放的影响作用。FDI对细分行业工业碳排放的影响并非恒定不变，其影响系数随时间推移而发生动态变化。与之相对，贸易开放度对碳排放的影响兼具正向与负向效应。具体而言，贸易开放度提升会使低碳排放强度行业的碳排放水平出现下降。经济活动强度、就业水平、自主技术创新以及人均GDP等因素，均会对工业部门的碳排放产生显著影响。