Uneven impacts of lockdowns on municipal revenues of Chile

This paper analyses the effect of the political decision to implement lockdowns on municipal revenues, with emphasis on the heterogeneous impact of this measure at the territorial and socio-economic level. The method used to determine the effect of the policy on the rate of income growth was panel data analysis with two-way fixed effects. The results indicate that all municipalities were affected by the pandemic, particularly, the impact of the policy at the territorial level was greater in metropolitan municipalities and large municipalities, while at the socio-economic level, municipalities with higher poverty rate had lower income growth. Based on these results, public policy recommendations are associated with the financial management of emergencies and changes in local institutions and intergovernmental relations. To estimate the impact of the lockdown on municipal revenues during the months of March to September 2020, the inter-annual growth rate of municipalities' own revenues is analysed, as it has the advantage of comparing municipalities at one point in time despite the great inequalities that exist, while analysing the fall in own revenues allows us to measure the effect of health policy on economic activity, as the distribution of the FCM is defined by formula and vertical transfers are discretionary and subject to political influence (Lara et al, 2017; Livert & Gainza, 2018, 2020; Corvalan et al ,2018). Studying the effect of the lockdown is interesting because it is a top-down policy, exogenous to the local decision that affects in the short term the local management of the health emergency and in the medium term the financial sustainability of the municipalities. This policy was applied in a differentiated manner among municipalities during the March-September period, in effect, 109 of the 345 municipalities in the country were affected; of the 109 municipalities, some were affected for 15 days and others for 100 days. To determine the incidence of the lockdown on the decrease in municipal revenues, panel data analysis and fixed effects are used for the 345 municipalities in the country and for the months of March to September. The commune fixed effect controls for those commune-specific factors that are fixed over time, and the month fixed effect controls for those factors that vary over time but are common to all communes. In each of the models the dependent variable is the inter-annual rate of own revenues, while the independent variable is lockdown, which is expressed on the one hand as a binary variable that is 1 when the municipality was under the policy and 0 otherwise, and on the other hand, and in order to understand whether there is an effect according to the days under a given policy, the lockdown variable is also expressed in the cumulative number of days that the municipality was under this policy, information that is collected from the epidemiological reports of the Ministry of Health.

本文分析了实施封锁这一政治决策对市级财政收入的影响，重点探讨该措施在地域与社会经济层面的异质性效应。本次研究采用双向固定效应面板数据分析方法，以评估该政策对收入增长率的影响。
研究结果显示，所有市政辖区均受到疫情冲击；具体而言，在地域层面，大都市辖区与大型辖区受到的政策影响更为显著；而在社会经济层面，贫困率较高的辖区收入增长率更低。
基于上述结论，本文提出的公共政策建议聚焦于突发事件财务管理、地方机构改革以及府际关系调整。
为估算2020年3月至9月期间封锁政策对市级财政收入的影响，本文重点分析了市级自有收入的同比增长率：该指标的优势在于，即便各辖区间存在显著不平等，仍可实现不同时点下的辖区间横向比较；而对自有收入降幅的分析，则可用于衡量卫生政策对经济活动的影响——这是因为财政均等化补助金（FCM）的分配遵循固定公式，而纵向转移支付则具有裁量性，易受政治因素影响（Lara et al, 2017; Livert & Gainza, 2018, 2020; Corvalan et al, 2018）。
研究封锁政策的影响具有重要意义：该政策属于自上而下的外生政策，不受地方决策影响，可在短期内影响卫生突发事件的地方治理，并在中长期影响市级财政的可持续性。
该国345个市政辖区在2020年3月至9月期间实施了差异化的封锁政策：其中109个辖区受到封锁政策影响，受影响时长从15天至100天不等。
为探究封锁政策对市级财政收入降幅的影响，本文针对该国345个市政辖区2020年3月至9月的面板数据，采用面板数据分析与固定效应模型展开研究。
辖区固定效应可控制那些不随时间变化的辖区专属特征，而月份固定效应则可控制那些随时间变化但对所有辖区均产生同等影响的共性因素。
各模型的因变量均为市级自有收入的同比增长率，而核心自变量为封锁政策变量：一方面，该变量以二元变量形式呈现，当某辖区实施封锁政策时取值为1，否则为0；另一方面，为探究政策实施时长是否存在异质性影响，本文同时采用封锁累计天数作为代理变量——该数据源自卫生部的流行病学报告。