Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic rates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories

AbstractMost research on boreal populations of Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species’ range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily disturbed by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT’s Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project boreal caribou population growth rates to change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk., MethodsPlease see the README document (\"README.md\") and the accompanying published article: Stewart, Micheletti et al. 2023. Climatepinformed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for nothern boreal caribou. Ecological Applications.

摘要 当前针对寒带林地驯鹿（Woodland caribou，Rangifer tarandus caribou）种群的相关研究，多集中于人为干扰强度较高的区域。但该物种的分布范围有相当大的比例与以野火等自然干扰为主的相对原生区域重叠。气候驱动的生境变化是寒带依赖型物种保护的核心关切，但当前的管理决策尚未整合多生态学领域的研究成果，以形成针对特定物种种群生境与动态的统一、空间显式预测模型。本研究采用全新的生态预测框架，针对加拿大西北地区（Northwest Territories, NWT）的5个寒带林地驯鹿监测区域，开展了为期90年的气候敏感型生境与种群动态预测。尤为关键的是，本研究对预测均值的不确定性进行了量化分析。研究结果显示，加拿大西北地区泰加平原生态区（Taiga Plains ecozone）的中部与西南部区域的生境适宜性或有所提升，但南部与西北部区域的生境适宜性则会因针叶林向落叶林的转化而下降。尽管生境适宜性出现了预测中的变化，但本研究未预测寒带林地驯鹿的种群增长率会发生改变。本研究结果强调，即便存在气候不确定性，保护与恢复北部寒带林地驯鹿生境的工作仍具有重要意义；同时也指出了预期出现的空间差异，这对于依赖该物种的当地民众而言是关键的考量因素。复刻已有研究的能力，以及在整合不确定性来源时保持批判性思维，对于优化预测模型、制定管理决策以及提升受威胁北部物种的保护成效至关重要。
方法 请参阅README文档（README.md）及已发表的配套论文：Stewart、Micheletti等人，2023年。《气候信息驱动的预测揭示北部寒带林地驯鹿的局部生境巨变与种群不确定性》，Ecological Applications。