Historical and projected climatic protection from spruce beetle infestation in Alaska, 1988-2099

This dataset is the product of a climate-driven model of beetle survival and reproduction in Alaska. We used that model to create this dataset of landscape-level “risk” of the climatic component of beetle infestation across the forested areas of Alaska. This risk component can best be applied as protection of the landscape offered by the climate and is categorized as high, medium, and low. It does not consider other major factors, such as existing beetle and predator populations or forest susceptibility. We computed these values over one historical period (1988-2017) using the NCAR Daymet model, and three future periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099) using four statistically downscaled global climate model projections, each run under two plausible greenhouse gas futures (RCP 4.5 and 8.5).

本数据集基于阿拉斯加地区气候驱动的甲虫存活与繁殖模型构建而成。我们依托该模型生成了覆盖阿拉斯加全部森林区域的、表征甲虫侵染气候因子组分的景观尺度“风险”数据集。该风险组分可用于表征气候为景观提供的防护效能，其风险等级划分为高、中、低三级。本数据集未纳入其他关键影响因子，例如现存甲虫种群、天敌种群或森林易感程度。我们采用NCAR Daymet模型计算了1988-2017年历史时段的风险值；针对2010-2039、2040-2069、2070-2099三个未来时段，则基于4套经过统计降尺度的全球气候模式预估结果开展计算，每套预估结果均在两种合理的温室气体排放情景（RCP 4.5与RCP 8.5）下运行。