Estimating Chicken Meat Productions of Leader Countries for 2019-2025 Years

ABSTRACT: The study predicted chicken meat production in 2019-2025 period for the leading chicken-producing countries with the help of the 1961-2018 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data since chicken meat consumption is so high worldwide. The USA ranks the first place while Brazil and China take second and third places, respectively. The analysis of the pioneer chicken meat-producing countries indicates that while the portion of the USA in world production decreases, the share, particularly Brazil and China, will approach that of the USA. World chicken meat production, which was 7.56 million tons in 1961, will increase to 139.19 million tons in 2025, and this production per capita is predicted to increase to 17.0 kg in 2025 from 2.4, 5.35, 9.80, and 15.0 kg in 1961, 1981, 2001, and 2018, respectively. Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Japan, and India will run the highest increases in production. However, the share of countries in chicken meat production will decrease from 61% to 60% in 2019-2025 compared to the 2012-2018 periods. This condition showed that apart from some leading countries, the production will keep a rapid increase in production. The increase in chicken meat production and chicken meat import worldwide will improve human nutrition, especially in developing and underdeveloped countries. Countries that run cost advantages and high-quality life standards in line with technological innovations produce processed chicken products, strengthen animal health, hygiene, and transportation standards, and attach importance to advertising activities that increase consumer demand will be more advantageous in this market.

摘要：鉴于全球鸡肉消费量居高不下，本研究依托1961-2018年联合国粮食及农业组织（Food and Agriculture Organization，FAO）的数据，针对全球主要鸡肉生产国，对2019-2025年的鸡肉产量展开预测。其中美国鸡肉产量位居全球第一，巴西与中国分列第二、第三位。
对头部鸡肉生产国的分析显示，尽管美国在全球鸡肉总产量中的占比有所下滑，但巴西与中国的产量占比将逐步追近美国。1961年全球鸡肉总产量为756万吨，预计到2025年将增长至1.3919亿吨；同期人均鸡肉产量也将从1961年的2.4kg、1981年的5.35kg、2001年的9.80kg以及2018年的15.0kg，提升至2025年的17.0kg。
印度尼西亚、俄罗斯、巴西、日本与印度的鸡肉产量增幅将位居全球前列。不过相较于2012-2018年阶段，2019-2025年期间鸡肉生产大国的全球总产量占比将从61%降至60%。这一趋势表明，除头部生产国之外，其余地区的鸡肉产量仍将保持快速增长。
全球鸡肉产量与进口量的增长将改善人类营养状况，尤其对发展中国家与欠发达国家而言意义重大。那些依托技术创新具备成本优势、契合技术革新达成高标准生产要求的国家，若能开展鸡肉深加工产品研发与生产、强化动物健康、卫生防疫及运输标准，并重视旨在提振消费需求的广告宣传活动，将在该市场中占据更有利的竞争地位。