Evaluation indicators system of DI.

Investigating the coupled and coordinated relationship among digital infrastructure (DI), economic resilience (ER) and carbon productivity (CP) is pivotal for advancing sustainable development in China. This study employs multiple approaches, including the coupling coordination model, kernel density estimation, Markov chain, and spatial Durbin model, to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of the coupling coordination degree (CCD) from 2013 to 2021. The findings are as follows. First, the average levels of DI, ER and CP show a consistent upward trajectory. Second, the CCD among the three systems exhibits steady growth, transitioning from a state of “general out of balance” to “barely coupling coordination”. Spatially, the CCD demonstrates a characteristic pattern of decreasing from east to west. Overall, achieving a “cross-level transition” in CCD is challenging, and the neighboring provinces significantly influence the enhancement of local CCD. Third, the CCD demonstrates a positive spatial agglomeration effect, with stable hotspots concentrated in regions such as Hubei, Anhui, Zhejiang, and Shanghai. Fourth, strategic emerging industries, population density, human capital, and environmental regulation intensity positively contribute to the local CCD, whereas financial development exerts a negative impact. Regarding spatial spillover effects, strategic emerging industries and environmental regulation intensity exert positive influences, while population density shows a negative effect. Meanwhile, the spatial spillover effects of human capital and financial development are not significant.

探究数字基础设施（DI）、经济韧性（ER）与碳生产率（CP）三者间的耦合协调关系，对推进中国可持续发展至关重要。本研究采用耦合协调模型、核密度估计、马尔可夫链及空间杜宾模型等多种方法，对2013至2021年耦合协调度（CCD）的时空演化特征与驱动因素展开分析。研究结果如下：其一，数字基础设施、经济韧性与碳生产率的平均水平均呈现持续上升态势。其二，三大系统的耦合协调度稳步提升，已从“基本失调”状态跃迁至“勉强协调”状态；空间维度上，耦合协调度呈现由东向西逐步降低的典型分布格局。总体而言，实现耦合协调度的跨等级跃迁颇具挑战，且邻近省份对本地耦合协调度的提升具有显著正向影响。其三，耦合协调度存在正向空间集聚效应，稳定的热点区域集中于湖北、安徽、浙江、上海等地。其四，战略性新兴产业、人口密度、人力资本与环境规制强度对本地耦合协调度具有正向促进作用，而金融发展则产生负向影响。在空间溢出效应方面，战略性新兴产业与环境规制强度存在正向溢出效应，人口密度则呈现负向溢出效应，人力资本与金融发展的空间溢出效应则不显著。