Key attributes of a Holding entity.

This paper develops an empirical agent-based model to assess the impacts of Brexit on Scottish cattle farms. We first identify several trends and processes among Scottish cattle farms that were ongoing before Brexit: the lack of succession, the rise of leisure farming, the trend to diversify and industrialise, and, finally, the phenomenon of the “disappearing middle”, characterised by the decline of medium-sized farms and the polarization of farm sizes. We then study the potential impact of Brexit amid the local context and those ongoing social processes. We find that the impact of Brexit is indeed subject to pre-Brexit conditions. For example, whether industrialization is present locally can significantly alter the impact of Brexit. The impact of Brexit also varies by location: we find a clear divide between constituencies in the north (highland and islands), the middle (the central belt) and the south. Finally, we argue that policy analysis of Brexit should consider the heterogeneous social context and the complex social processes under which Brexit occurs. Rather than fitting the world into simple system models and ignoring the evidence when it does not fit, we need to develop policy analysis frameworks that can incorporate real world complexities, so that we can assess the impacts of major events and policy changes in a more meaningful way.

本研究构建了经验型基于智能体的模型（agent-based model），以评估英国脱欧（Brexit）对苏格兰养牛场的影响。我们首先梳理了脱欧前苏格兰养牛场领域已存在的若干趋势与进程：农产代际传承不足、休闲农业兴起、多元化与产业化发展的态势，以及以中型农场数量下滑、农场规模两极分化为特征的“中间阶层消失”现象。随后，本研究结合当地现实语境与上述存续的社会进程，探究英国脱欧的潜在影响。研究发现，英国脱欧的影响确实取决于脱欧前的既有条件：例如，当地是否存在产业化经营，会显著改变脱欧的影响效果。脱欧的影响还因地域而异：研究发现，北部（高地与离岛地区）、中部（中部地带）与南部各选区之间存在清晰的影响分野。最后，本研究提出，针对英国脱欧的政策分析应当考量脱欧发生所处的异质性社会语境与复杂社会进程。我们不应将现实世界强行套入简化的系统模型，在证据与模型相悖时无视实证结果；而应构建能够容纳现实复杂性的政策分析框架，从而以更具现实意义的方式评估重大事件与政策变革的影响。