Replication data for: Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation

In this essay, I begin by identifying the reasons that automation has not wiped out a majority of jobs over the decades and centuries. Automation does indeed substitute for labor—as it is typically intended to do. However, automation also complements labor, raises output in ways that leads to higher demand for labor, and interacts with adjustments in labor supply. Journalists and even expert commentators tend to overstate the extent of machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities between automation and labor that increase productivity, raise earnings, and augment demand for labor. Changes in technology do alter the types of jobs available and what those jobs pay. In the last few decades, one noticeable change has been a "polarization" of the labor market, in which wage gains went disproportionately to those at the top and at the bottom of the income and skill distribution, not to those in the middle; however, I also argue, this polarization is unlikely to continue very far into future. The final section of this paper reflects on how recent and future advances in artificial intelligence and robotics should shape our thinking about the likely trajectory of occupational change and employment growth. I argue that the interplay between machine and human comparative advantage allows computers to substitute for workers in performing routine, codifiable tasks while amplifying the comparative advantage of workers in supplying problem-solving skills, adaptability, and creativity.

本文首先阐释了数十乃至数百年来自动化为何未淘汰绝大多数就业岗位的根源。自动化确实会替代劳动力——正如其设计初衷。但与此同时，自动化亦可对劳动力形成补充，通过提升产出规模拉动劳动力需求，并与劳动力供给的调整形成动态互动。新闻从业者乃至专家评论者往往夸大了机器替代人类劳动的程度，却忽视了自动化与劳动力之间极强的互补性：这类互补性可提升生产效率、提高劳动者收入并扩大劳动力需求。技术变革确实会改变就业岗位的类型与薪资水平。近数十年来，劳动力市场出现了显著的「极化」现象：薪资增长更多流向收入与技能分布两端的群体，而非中间阶层；但本文同时认为，这种极化趋势未来难以为继。本文最后一部分探讨了人工智能（Artificial Intelligence）与机器人技术的近期及未来进展，应当如何影响我们对职业变迁与就业增长潜在趋势的认知。本文提出，机器与人类的比较优势相互作用，使得计算机能够替代劳动者完成常规、可编码任务，同时强化劳动者在提供问题解决能力、适应性与创造力方面的比较优势。