General Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) statistics.

The pros and cons of deep-sea mining (DSM) is currently hotly debated. Here, we assess the environmental, economic, and social risks of DSM by comparing scenarios with and without DSM involvement. The “Without” scenario relies solely on land-based mining and circular economy solutions, while the “With” scenario incorporates DSM alongside circular strategies, highlighting the dangers of heavy DSM dependence. Through literature review and expert interviews, our study identifies key risk indicators across environmental, economic, and social dimensions, forming a comprehensive assessment framework. Through the application of qualitative data and fuzzy cognitive mapping, the analysis reveals that environmental factors are the most influential (centrality: 1.46), followed by social (1.32) and economic (1.0) factors. In the “With DSM” scenario, all indicators show increased risks, with environmental factors, particularly “coastal state vulnerability,” experiencing a 13% rise. Social risks, including “violation of law,” “participatory rights,” “lack of effective control,” and “degraded reputation,” increase by 8–11%, while economic risks, such as “contractual violations,” “lack of special provision,” “knowledge gap on economic assistance fund” and disputes among “multiple stakeholders,” see an 11% uptick. Our results suggest that the risks DSM poses to deep-sea marine ecosystems are likely too significant to justify its pursuit and advocates for circular economy solutions as viable alternatives to mitigate environmental, social, and economic risks. We recommend that policies should promote circular practices through resource recovery incentives.

深海采矿（deep-sea mining, DSM）的利弊目前正处于激烈的学术与行业争论之中。本研究通过对比是否引入深海采矿的两种场景，评估深海采矿所带来的环境、经济与社会风险。「无深海采矿」场景完全依赖陆地采矿与循环经济解决方案，而「有深海采矿」场景则将深海采矿与循环策略相结合，凸显了过度依赖深海采矿的危害性。本研究通过文献综述与专家访谈，梳理了环境、经济、社会三个维度的关键风险指标，构建了一套全面的风险评估框架。通过定性数据与模糊认知图（fuzzy cognitive mapping）的分析应用，本研究结果显示：环境因素的影响力最为显著（中心度：1.46），其次为社会因素（1.32）与经济因素（1.0）。在「引入深海采矿」场景中，所有风险指标的水平均有所上升，其中环境因素尤其是「沿海国脆弱性」的风险增幅达13%。社会风险方面，包括「违法违规」「参与权保障缺失」「缺乏有效管控」以及「声誉受损」在内的多项指标风险增幅为8%至11%；而经济风险，如「合同违约」「缺乏专项配套条款」「经济援助基金相关知识缺口」以及「多方利益相关者间的争端」，则出现了11%的增幅。本研究结果表明，深海采矿对深海海洋生态系统所造成的风险或已过高，不足以支撑其商业化开发，同时倡导以循环经济解决方案作为可行替代方案，以缓解环境、社会与经济层面的各类风险。据此，本研究建议政策制定应通过资源回收激励措施，推广循环经济实践。