INTERNATIONAL TRADE, WAGES, AND SKILL PREMIUMS IN BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES FROM 2000 TO 2010

ABSTRACT This study aims to assess wage and skill premium responses to international trade in Brazil, determining different local specialization patterns with municipal data. We followed the theoretical model developed by Venables and Limão, who state that distance is a non-neutral variable in determining trade patterns. We used Chiquiar’s empirical model, which includes pooled regression with microdata and feasible generalized least squares in three steps. Selection bias and omitted variable biases were evaluated based on Redding and Schott and Oster. Results show that wage and skill premium responses to international trade are heterogeneous and depend on the geographic location. International trade seems to help reducing interregional inequalities in Brazil. However, it seems to intensify inter-skill wage inequalities in more distant zones, like Midwest and North Brazil. Thus, the reduction in income inequality due to a greater trade liberalization is not homogeneous in all regions of this developing country. Therefore, policies that geographically spread the benefits of international trade within Brazil would have to consider the occurrence of these regionally heterogeneous responses.

摘要
本研究旨在评估巴西国际贸易对工资与技能溢价的影响，并利用市级数据解析差异化的地方专业化模式。本研究采用Venables与Limão提出的理论模型，该模型指出距离在贸易格局的决定过程中并非中性变量。本研究使用Chiquiar的实证模型，该模型涵盖基于微观数据的混合回归与三步可行广义最小二乘法。研究基于Redding、Schott与Oster的相关成果，对选择性偏差与遗漏变量偏差进行了评估。研究结果表明，国际贸易对工资与技能溢价的影响存在异质性，且取决于地理区位。国际贸易似乎有助于缩小巴西的区域间收入不平等，但与此同时，其会加剧巴西中西部、北部等偏远地区的技能间工资不平等。由此可见，贸易自由化程度提升所带来的收入不平等缩减效应，在这个发展中国家的各区域间并不均衡。因此，若要在巴西境内通过政策实现国际贸易收益的地理普惠分配，就必须考量这些区域异质性的响应特征。