Bottleneck congestion and endogenously determined departure times under bounded rationality

This study examines departure time decisions in Vickrey's bottleneck model by incorporating bounded rationality through a quantal response equilibrium (QRE) framework. Traditional bottleneck models assume perfect rationality and may fail to capture real-world commuter behaviour. To address this limitation, a discrete version of the bottleneck model was developed and experimentally tested to compare the predictive performance of QRE and symmetric mixed-strategy equilibrium (SMSE). In a controlled laboratory setting with two conditions differing in the shadow price of travel time, departure time choices initially deviated from SMSE predictions, particularly under a low shadow price, but gradually converged toward them over repeated rounds. QRE provided a closer fit to observed departure time distributions than SMSE, especially in the low shadow price condition. Based on two out-of-sample validation measures, QRE demonstrated superior predictive performance, highligting the value of incorporating bounded rationality into bottleneck congestion models.

本研究借助量化响应均衡（quantal response equilibrium，QRE）框架引入有限理性，对维克里瓶颈模型（Vickrey's bottleneck model）中的出发时间决策展开探究。传统瓶颈模型均假设决策者具备完全理性，因而难以精准刻画现实通勤群体的出行行为。为弥补这一研究局限，本研究构建了离散化瓶颈模型并开展受控实验，以对比量化响应均衡与对称混合策略均衡（symmetric mixed-strategy equilibrium，SMSE）的预测性能。在设置了两组出行时间影子价格不同的受控实验室实验中，通勤者的出发时间选择初始时偏离对称混合策略均衡的预测结果，尤其在低影子价格条件下偏差更为显著，但随着实验轮次增加，选择结果逐渐向均衡收敛。相较于对称混合策略均衡，量化响应均衡更贴合观测到的出发时间分布特征，尤其是在低影子价格实验条件下。基于两项样本外验证指标，量化响应均衡展现出更优的预测性能，凸显了将有限理性纳入瓶颈拥堵模型的研究价值。