Zambezi River Basin Hydropower Assumptions

This project is a research initiative designed to address the major uncertainties facing hydropower development in the region, and to deepen understanding among stakeholders of the risks to hydropower from changes in climate and increased upstream water demand. <br><br> For 18 months, researchers from the University of Cape Town, the Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering (Zambia) at the University of Zambia, OneWorld Sustainable Investments, University of Eduardo Mondlane, and Pöyry Management Consulting have been developing and applying a water supply and demand modelling tool for the Zambezi River Basin. The research was guided by a Steering Committee led by the Southern African Power Pool and including the Zambezi River Authority, the ZAMCOM Interim Secretariat, Southern African Development Community Energy, the UK Department for International Development, and the Climate and Development Knowledge Network. <br>The model was applied to two future climate scenarios, reflecting possible “wetting” or “drying” climates, and two scenarios for irrigation expansion in the region. The results of the analysis point to dramatic potential negative impacts on major existing and planned hydropower investments. <br>The research team and funders are committed to making this research accessible and in the public domain, including all of the modelling. This page includes links to all of the final deliverables of the project, including the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and underlying datasets behind this. <br>See more at: http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/groups/esap/current/esap-zambezi1#sthash.N0IZSbPX.dpuf

该项目是一项研究计划，旨在解决该区域水电开发面临的主要不确定性，并加深利益相关方（stakeholders）对气候变化及上游用水需求增加给水电带来的风险的理解。<br><br>18个月来，来自开普敦大学、赞比亚大学能源、环境与工程中心（赞比亚）（Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering (Zambia)）、OneWorld可持续投资公司、爱德华多·蒙德拉内大学以及Pöyry管理咨询公司的研究人员，一直在为赞比西河流域开发和应用一套供水与需水建模工具。本研究由南部非洲电力库（Southern African Power Pool）牵头的指导委员会（Steering Committee）提供指导，该委员会成员包括赞比西河管理局、ZAMCOM临时秘书处、南部非洲发展共同体能源部门、英国国际发展部以及气候与发展知识网络。<br>该模型被应用于两种未来气候情景（scenarios）——分别反映可能的“湿润化”或“干旱化”气候——以及该区域灌溉扩张的两种情景。分析结果表明，这将对现有及规划中的大型水电投资产生显著的潜在负面影响。<br>研究团队及资助方致力于确保本研究成果（包括所有建模内容）可公开获取并进入公有领域。本页面包含该项目所有最终交付成果（deliverables）的链接，包括水资源评估与规划模型（Water Evaluation and Planning, WEAP）及支撑其的基础数据集。<br>欲了解更多信息，请访问：http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/groups/esap/current/esap-zambezi1#sthash.N0IZSbPX.dpuf