Replication data for: Make it Rain? Retrospection and the Attentive Electorate in the Context of Natural Disasters

Are election outcomes driven by events beyond the control of politicians? Democratic accountability requires that voters make reasonable evaluations of incumbents. Although natural disasters are beyond human control, the response to these events is the responsibility of elected officials. In a county-level analysis of gubernatorial and presidential elections from 1970 to 2006, we examine the effects of weather events and governmental responses. We find that electorates punish presidents and governors for severe weather damage. However we find that these effects are dwarfed by the response of attentive electorates to the actions of their officials. When the president rejects a request by the governor for federal assistance, the president is punished and the governor is rewarded at the polls. The electorate is able to separate random events from governmental responses and attribute actions based on the defined roles of these two politicians.

选举结果是否由政客无法掌控的事件所驱动？民主问责机制要求选民对在任公职人员作出合理评估。尽管自然灾害属于人力不可控范畴，但针对此类事件的应对工作乃是当选官员的法定职责。我们针对1970年至2006年的州长选举与总统选举开展县级层面的数据分析，以此检验气象事件与政府应对举措的选举影响。研究发现，选民会因严重气象灾害造成的损失而惩罚总统与州长。不过我们的研究显示，具有政治关注度的选民对官员履职行为的反应，其影响力远超上述惩罚效应。当总统否决州长提出的联邦援助请求时，总统会在选举中遭到选民惩罚，而州长则会获得选举褒奖。选民能够区分随机发生的灾害事件与政府应对举措，并依据两位政客的既定职权范围对其行为作出评判。