Mechanism analysis results.

With the development of the digital economy, industrial structure upgrading plays an important role in realizing high-quality development. Exploiting the quasi-natural experimental setting provided by the Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zone (BDCPZ) policy in China in 2016, this study evaluates the impacts of the BDCPZ policies on regional industrial structure upgrading using a combination of propensity score matching and difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) with panel data of 30 regions for the period 2008–2021. The results are as follows: (1) BDCPZ policies significantly promote regional industrial structure upgrading. This finding holds after conducting the placebo test and replacing explained variables. (2) BDCPZ policies enhance upgrading through technological innovation and financial deepening. (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the promotional effect of BDCPZ policies on industrial structure upgrading is more obvious in economically developed regions, megacities, and east-central regions; overall, regions with high industrialization benefit more. These findings have important implications: First, they provide new empirical evidence from the perspective of policy evaluation on how the digital economy affects industrial structure upgrading. Second, this study sheds light on the mechanism underlying this relationship, helping us understand how the digital economy can further affect the development of the industrial structure. Third, the policy effect is heterogenous, providing a scientific basis for the government to formulate differentiated implementation policies for different regions. This can help local industrial transformation and upgrading, and economic development in these regions through the implementation of big data and digital technologies.

随着数字经济的发展，产业结构升级对于实现高质量发展具有关键作用。本研究依托中国2016年出台的大数据综合试验区（Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zone，BDCPZ）政策所提供的准自然实验场景，基于2008—2021年30个地区的面板数据，结合倾向得分匹配-双重差分法（propensity score matching and difference-in-differences，PSM-DID）评估了BDCPZ政策对区域产业结构升级的影响。研究结果如下：（1）BDCPZ政策显著推动了区域产业结构升级，该结论在经过安慰剂检验与替换被解释变量后依然稳健。（2）BDCPZ政策通过技术创新与金融深化两条路径促进产业结构升级。（3）异质性分析表明，BDCPZ政策对产业结构升级的提振效应在经济发达地区、超大城市以及东中部地区更为显著；整体而言，工业化水平较高的地区从中获益更多。上述研究结论具有重要启示意义：其一，本研究从政策评估视角为数字经济影响产业结构升级的相关议题提供了新的经验证据。其二，本研究揭示了二者关系背后的作用机制，有助于我们理解数字经济如何进一步推动产业结构发展。其三，政策效应存在异质性，可为政府针对不同地区制定差异化实施政策提供科学依据。通过落实大数据与数字技术，此举能够助力当地产业转型升级与区域经济发展。