The SAGE Model: Structural Complexity, Institutional Capacity, and the Structural Transmission of Crisis Amplitude

This repository contains the data, code, and supplementary materials associated with the paper "The SAGE Model: Structural Complexity, Institutional Capacity, and the Transmission of Crisis Amplitude", currently under review at the Journal of Peace Research.
The SAGE (Structural Attractor for Geopolitical Events) framework introduces a dynamic panel approach to modeling the amplitude of violent conflict as a function of structural complexity, systemic volatility, and institutional capacity. The repository includes:

Replication datasets covering 67 conflict-affected countries (1989–2024), combining UCDP GED, ACLED, V-Dem v13, World Bank WDI, EPU, and SIPRI
Data construction procedures and variable definitions (codebook.csv)
Estimation scripts for all reported models (R scripts 01–11)
Out-of-sample forecasting routines and evaluation metrics
Session information and computational environment (R v4.5.2)

All materials are provided to ensure full reproducibility and transparency of the empirical results. The repository is structured to allow straightforward replication of the main findings as well as extension to alternative model specifications. A detailed README file is included to guide users through the replication process.

本仓库包含与目前已投稿至《和平研究期刊》（Journal of Peace Research）的论文《SAGE模型：结构复杂性、制度能力与危机烈度的传导》相关的数据、代码及补充材料。
结构地缘政治事件吸引子（Structural Attractor for Geopolitical Events, 简称SAGE）框架提出了一种动态面板方法，将暴力冲突烈度建模为结构复杂性、系统波动性与制度能力的函数。本仓库包含以下内容：
1. 覆盖67个受冲突影响国家（1989年—2024年）的复现数据集，整合了乌普萨拉冲突数据项目地理编码事件数据集（Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Event Dataset, 简称UCDP GED）、武装冲突地点与事件数据项目（Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, 简称ACLED）、民主发展指数调查v13（V-Dem v13）、世界银行世界发展指标（World Bank WDI）、经济政策不确定性指数（EPU）以及斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所数据库（SIPRI）；
2. 数据构建流程与变量定义说明文件（codebook.csv）；
3. 所有已报告模型的估计脚本（R脚本01至11）；
4. 样本外预测流程与评估指标；
5. 会话信息与计算环境配置（R v4.5.2）。

所有材料均旨在确保实证结果的完全可复现性与研究透明度。本仓库的架构便于用户直接复现核心研究发现，也可拓展适配其他模型设定。仓库中附带详细的README文件，以指导用户完成复现流程。