Seasonal total rainfall (mm per 3-month season) change from the median projected for2066-2095, relative to present (1976 - 2005), for DJF season under the RCP 4.5 pathway

Seasonal (DJF) rainfall (mm per month) change from the median projected for 2066-2095, relative to present (1976 - 2005), under the RCP 4.5 pathway for the southern African region. To generate the image, nine coarse General Circulation Models (GCM) are downscaled to a finer spatial resolution (0.44°x 0.44°) using the Rossby Centre regional model (RCA4) forcing its lateral boundaries. The model simulated daily rainfall averages, which are used to generate projections of seasonal change. The projections are generated using the medium to low (RCP4.5) pathway which associates CO2 concentrations of approximately 560ppm by the year 2100. The associated RMSD it calculated and shows the uncertainty range of the projected model simulated residual values, and gives a relative perspective of spatial areas associated with higher and lower projection uncertainties.

南部非洲地区在典型浓度路径4.5（RCP 4.5）情景下，2066-2095年（相对于当前1976-2005年）冬季（DJF）月均降雨量（毫米/月）相对于中位数的变化。为生成该图像，9个粗分辨率全球环流模型（General Circulation Models, GCM）通过罗斯比中心区域模型（Rossby Centre regional model, RCA4）强迫其侧边界，被降尺度至更精细的空间分辨率（0.44°×0.44°）。模型模拟的日降雨量平均值用于生成季节变化的投影。这些投影基于中低排放（RCP4.5）路径生成，该路径预计到2100年CO₂浓度约为560ppm。计算得到的相关均方根误差（RMSD）显示了模型模拟残差值投影的不确定性范围，并提供了投影不确定性高低相关空间区域的相对视角。