Root Mean Square Difference between the nine ensemble member change anomalies of the seasonal mean near-surface (2m) temperature for the median for 2066 - 2095 relative to 1976-2005, for the JJA season, under the RCP 8.5 pathway

Root Mean Square Difference for seasonal (JJA) mean near-surface (2m) temperature (°C) change from the median projected for 2036-2065, relative to present (1976 - 2005), under the RCP 8.5 pathway for the southern African region. To generate the image, nine coarse General Circulation Models (GCM) are downscaled to a finer spatial resolution (0.44°x 0.44°) using the Rossby Centre regional model (RCA4) forcing its lateral boundaries. The model simulated daily temperature averages, which are used to generate projections of seasonal change. The projections are generated using the high (RCP8.5) pathway which associates CO2 concentrations of approximately 950ppm by the year 2100. The associated RMSD it calculated and shows the uncertainty range of the projected model simulated residual values, and gives a relative perspective of spatial areas associated with higher and lower projection uncertainties..

南部非洲区域在典型浓度路径8.5（Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5，RCP 8.5）情景下，2036-2065年期间季节（JJA）平均近地表（2米）温度（°C）相对于当前（1976-2005年）的中位数预估变化的均方根差（Root Mean Square Difference，RMSD）。为生成该图像，使用罗斯比中心区域模式（RCA4）驱动其侧边界，将9个低分辨率大气环流模式（General Circulation Model，GCM）降尺度至更高空间分辨率（0.44°×0.44°）。该模式模拟的日平均温度被用于生成季节变化的预估结果。这些预估基于高排放情景（RCP8.5）生成，该情景下2100年二氧化碳浓度约为950ppm。计算得到的相关均方根差展示了模式模拟预估残差的不确定性范围，并提供了预估不确定性高低相关空间区域的相对视角。