Nexus: Water, Climate, Energy and the Environment - A Perspective on the Itataia-CE Development

Abstract The water viability of the Uranium and Phosphate Exploration and Processing Complex in Santa Quitéria - Ceará was analyzed from the relation of the water, energy and climate nexus. In order to do so, rainfall, evapotranspiration and flow projections were carried out using the global models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, used in the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC-AR5). Data from Ceará's energy matrix were also considered in order to verify the state's increased energy demand and to analyze the impact of its production on water resources. The models differ in the future of precipitation, but most indicate an increase in evapotranspiration over the three projected periods (2015-2044, 2045-2074 and 2075-2099) in the two scenarios chosen (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) indicating a possible increase in water demand for the region.

摘要：本研究从水-能源-气候耦合纽带的视角，对巴西塞阿拉州圣基特利亚市铀矿与磷酸盐勘探加工综合体的水资源可持续性展开分析。为此，本研究采用第五次耦合模式比较计划（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, CMIP5，即政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告IPCC-AR5所采用的全球气候模式）开展降水、蒸散发与径流预估。同时纳入塞阿拉州能源结构相关数据，以研判该州持续增长的能源需求，并分析其电力生产对水资源的影响。尽管各模式对未来降水的预测存在分歧，但多数模式结果表明：在选定的两种典型浓度路径情景（Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP）4.5与RCP8.5下，三个预估时段（2015-2044年、2045-2074年及2075-2099年）内区域蒸散发均呈上升趋势，预示该地区水资源需求或将进一步提升。