The Cultural Origins of Populism

The electoral success of right-wing populist parties is often attributed to disaffection among certain voters. But while economic explanations for this disaffection are theoretically clear and quantifiable, explanations centered on cultural factors offer accounts that are more vague and harder to evaluate empirically. We address this problem by distinguishing theoretically between five different “storylines” about the cultural origins of populism, and then test them using extensive data from Europe and the United States. Our analysis indicates that concerns about ethno-cultural change induced by immigration are central to understanding the populist vote; so, but to a lesser extent, is rural resentment and status anxiety. In contrast, explanations centered on communal disintegration or an intergenerational values divide are pertinent in only specific cases. The analysis helps disentangle the cultural forces associated with the rise of populism and highlights the heterogeneous coalitions that form the populist base across different countries.

右翼民粹主义政党的选举成功常被归因于特定选民群体的不满情绪。然而，尽管针对这种不满情绪的经济解释在理论上清晰且可量化，但以文化因素为核心的解释却更为模糊，难以通过实证评估。为解决这一问题，我们从理论上区分了关于民粹主义文化起源的五种不同“叙事线”，并利用来自欧洲和美国的海量数据对其进行检验。我们的分析表明，对移民引发的族裔文化变迁的担忧是理解民粹主义选票的核心；农村不满情绪与地位焦虑同样相关，但影响程度较轻。相比之下，以社群解体或代际价值观分歧为核心的解释仅在特定案例中具有相关性。本分析有助于厘清与民粹主义兴起相关的文化力量，并凸显了在不同国家构成民粹主义基础的异质性联盟。