Replication data for: The Unholy Trinity: Immigration, Unemployment and Extremism in Europe, 1980-2002

In this paper we focus on the ways in which immigration and unemployment interact and affect the probability of voting for an extreme right (ER) party in Europe. We begin by replicating the results from “Contextual Factors and the Extreme Right Vote in Western Europe, 1980-2002” by Arzheimer (2009), which finds that immigration (measured by the number of asylum seekers) and unemployment have positive marginal effects and, counterintuitively, a negative interaction effect. We challenge Arzheimer’s (2009) employment of asylum seekers as a proxy for immigration and instead suggest two alternate, more direct measures: net migration and percent of foreign population. Using these new measures, we find a positive interaction effect between immigration and unemployment.

本文聚焦于移民与失业的互动机制及其对欧洲极右翼（Extreme Right，ER）政党投票概率的影响。我们首先复刻了Arzheimer（2009）在《语境因素与1980-2002年西欧的极右翼得票》一文中的研究结论，该研究发现，以寻求庇护者数量衡量的移民规模与失业率均存在正向边际效应，且违背直觉地呈现负向交互效应。我们对Arzheimer（2009）以寻求庇护者作为移民代理变量的研究范式提出质疑，并提出两种更具直接性的替代性衡量指标：净移民规模与外国人口占比。采用这些新的衡量指标后，我们发现移民与失业之间存在正向交互效应。