Determinantes de Longo Prazo do Produto e da Produtividade Total dos Fatores da Agropecuária Brasileira no Período 1974-2005

This study develops an analysis of the impacts of the most important variables in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in agriculture in the period between 1974 and 2005. Investment in infrastructure for transport, energy, research, agricultural irrigation and storage and the amount of rural credit and education of workers in the agricultural sector are considered determinants of the economic growth. The analysis is done through the use of the Johansen cointegration method and the results suggest that education and investment in infrastructure have a positive impact on output and on agriculture yield in the long run. On the other hand, cointegration relationship between credit and production, and credit and agriculture yield were not detected.

本研究分析了1974年至2005年间农业领域国内生产总值（Gross Domestic Product, GDP）和全要素生产率（Total Factor Productivity, TFP）中关键变量的影响。交通、能源、科研、农业灌溉与仓储等基础设施投资，以及农村信贷规模和农业部门劳动者受教育程度，均被视为经济增长的决定因素。本研究采用Johansen协整方法进行分析，结果表明，从长期来看，教育和基础设施投资对农业产出及产量具有积极影响。另一方面，信贷与农业生产、信贷与农业产量之间未发现协整关系。