Variable vulnerability to climate change in New Zealand lizards

Aim: The primary drivers of species and population extirpations have been habitat loss, overexploitation, and invasive species, but human-mediated climate change is expected to be a major driver in future. To minimise biodiversity loss, conservation managers should identify species vulnerable to climate change and prioritise their protection. Here, we estimate climatic suitability for two speciose taxonomic groups, then use phylogenetic analyses to assess vulnerability to climate change.
Location: Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ)
Taxa: NZ lizards: diplodactylid geckos and eugongylinae skinks
Methods: We built correlative species distribution models (SDMs) for NZ geckos and skinks to estimate climatic suitability under current climate and 2070 future-climate scenarios. We then used Bayesian phylogenetic mixed models (BPMMs) to assess vulnerability for both groups with predictor variables for life history traits (body size and activity phase) and current distribution (elevation and latitude)....

目标：物种及种群灭绝的主要驱动因素为栖息地丧失、过度开发及入侵物种，但人为介导的气候变化预计将成为未来的主要驱动因素。为最大限度减少生物多样性丧失，保护管理者应识别易受气候变化影响的物种并优先保护它们。本研究中，我们估算两个物种丰富的分类群的气候适宜性，随后通过系统发育分析评估其对气候变化的脆弱性。
地点：奥特亚罗瓦新西兰（NZ）
类群：新西兰蜥蜴：Diplodactylidae科壁虎（diplodactylid geckos）和Eugongylinae亚科石龙子（eugongylinae skinks）
方法：我们为新西兰壁虎和石龙子构建了关联物种分布模型（SDMs），以估算当前气候及2070年未来气候情景下的气候适宜性。随后，我们使用贝叶斯系统发育混合模型（BPMMs）评估这两个类群的脆弱性，预测变量包括生活史特征（体型大小及活动阶段）和当前分布（海拔及纬度）……