Results of the dynamic evaluation of YTSRs.

Scientific evaluation of yachting tourism safety risks (YTSRs) is crucial to reducing accidents in this sector. This paper is based on the data of 115 yachting tourism accidents in China’s coastal areas from 2008 to 2021. A fishbone diagram and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) were used to identify the risk factors of yachting tourism from four aspects human, yachting, environmental, and management risk and to construct an evaluation index system. To perform dynamic evaluation, a dynamic evaluation model of YTSRs was built using dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN). The results indicate that human factors, such as the unsafe behavior of yachtsmen and tourists, are the primary risk factors; the risk is higher in summer than in winter, and the Pearl River Delta region has a greater risk of yachting tourism. It is suggested to improve the normal safety risk prevention and control system of yachting tourism, to advocate for multi-subject coordination and co-governance, and to improve the insurance service system so as to provide a guarantee for the safe and healthy development of yachting tourism in China. The findings provide theoretical and practical guidance for marine and coastal tourism safety management, as well as the prevention and control of YTSRs.

对游艇旅游安全风险（Yachting Tourism Safety Risks, YTSRs）开展科学评估，对于降低该领域的事故发生率至关重要。本研究基于2008年至2021年中国沿海地区115起游艇旅游事故数据，采用鱼骨图与层次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP）从人为、游艇、环境、管理四个维度识别游艇旅游风险因素，并构建了评价指标体系。为开展动态评价，本研究利用动态贝叶斯网络（Dynamic Bayesian Networks, DBN）构建了游艇旅游安全风险动态评估模型。研究结果表明，游艇驾驶员与游客的不安全行为等人为因素是首要风险因素；夏季的风险高于冬季，且珠江三角洲地区的游艇旅游风险更高。据此建议完善游艇旅游常态化安全风险防控体系，倡导多主体协同共治，并优化保险服务体系，为我国游艇旅游的安全健康发展提供保障。本研究成果可为海洋与滨海旅游安全管理以及游艇旅游安全风险防控提供理论与实践指导。