A Bayesian econometrics and risk programming approach for analysing the impact of decoupled payments in the European Union

We estimate a risk-based programming, individual farm model and apply it to study the wealth effects of crop-related, decoupled direct payments under the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy. The model expands on previous work on estimating risk-based programming models by applying a robust Bayesian econometric framework. The results indicate that the wealth effect varies greatly between individual farms, but that its impact on aggregate crop production is small. For larger farms, in particular, removing the decoupled payments, while keeping total land constant, increases the diversity of the cropping plan.

我们估计了一个基于风险规划的个体农场模型，并将其应用于研究欧盟（EU）共同农业政策下与作物相关的脱钩直接补贴的财富效应。该模型通过应用稳健的贝叶斯计量经济学框架，拓展了此前关于估计基于风险规划模型的研究。结果表明，个体农场之间的财富效应差异显著，但该效应对总作物产量的影响较小。尤其对于大型农场而言，在总土地面积保持不变的情况下取消脱钩补贴，会提高种植计划的多样性。