Data_Sheet_2_Developing and validating a nomogram for cognitive impairment in the older people based on the NHANES.docx

ObjectiveTo use the United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Study (NHANES) to develop and validate a risk-prediction nomogram for cognitive impairment in people aged over 60 years.
MethodsA total of 2,802 participants (aged ≥ 60 years) from NHANES were analyzed. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used for variable selection and model development. ROC-AUC, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the nomogram’s performance.
ResultsThe nomogram included five predictors, namely sex, moderate activity, taste problem, age, and education. It demonstrated satisfying discrimination with a AUC of 0.744 (95% confidence interval, 0.696–0.791). The nomogram was well-calibrated according to the calibration curve. The DCA demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful.
ConclusionThe risk-prediction nomogram for cognitive impairment in people aged over 60 years was effective. All predictors included in this nomogram can be easily accessed from its’ user.

研究目的：本研究依托美国国家健康与营养检查调查（NHANES），为60岁及以上人群的认知损害构建并验证一款风险预测列线图。
研究方法：本研究共纳入来自NHANES的2802名年龄≥60岁的受试者进行分析。采用最小绝对收缩和选择算子（LASSO）回归模型与多变量logistic回归分析完成变量筛选与模型构建。通过受试者工作特征曲线下面积（ROC-AUC）、校准曲线及决策曲线分析（DCA）评估该列线图的性能。
研究结果：该列线图共纳入5个预测因子，分别为性别、中等强度体力活动、味觉障碍、年龄与受教育程度。其区分度良好，ROC-AUC值为0.744（95%置信区间：0.696~0.791）。校准曲线显示该列线图校准度佳。决策曲线分析表明该列线图具备临床应用价值。
研究结论：本研究构建的60岁及以上人群认知损害风险预测列线图效能良好，且其纳入的所有预测因子均可从受试者处便捷获取。