Spatial regression model validation.

Implementing the rural revitalization strategy is crucial for ensuring and enhancing the livelihoods of the vast rural population. The upgrading of rural consumption reflects the gradual realization of rural residents’ pursuit of a better life, and the rapid development of digital inclusive finance provides strong support for this. Based on the Digital Inclusive Finance Index released by Peking University and panel data from 30 provinces across the country, this study examines the role of digital inclusive finance in optimizing rural consumption structure through the mediation effect model and analyzes its spatial spillover effects using the spatial Durbin model. The research shows that narrowing the development gap in digital inclusive finance is crucial for upgrading the rural consumption structure, which helps to promote rural residents’ transition to higher-level consumption. Through the analysis of the spatial Durbin model, this study finds spatial spillover effects in this process, meaning that financial development in a particular region promotes local development but inhibits development in neighboring areas. Among various dimensions, the impact of breadth of coverage is the most significant. This trend of financial development affects consumption structure by increasing agricultural productivity and rural residents’ operational income, particularly highlighting its impact on operational income. However, there are significant differences between the eastern and central-western regions in optimizing rural consumption structure, with the eastern region benefiting more while the effects in the central-western region are limited and sometimes even negative. Therefore, regional characteristics should be fully considered in policy formulation to narrow the development gap in digital inclusive finance and achieve high-quality and sustainable development.

实施乡村振兴战略，对于保障和改善广大农村居民的生计福祉至关重要。农村消费升级，彰显着农村居民对美好生活追求的逐步实现，而数字普惠金融（Digital Inclusive Finance）的快速发展为此提供了坚实支撑。本研究基于北京大学发布的数字普惠金融指数与全国30个省份的面板数据，采用中介效应模型检验数字普惠金融对农村消费结构的优化作用，并借助空间杜宾模型（Spatial Durbin Model）分析其空间溢出效应。研究表明，缩小数字普惠金融发展差距，对农村消费结构升级至关重要，有助于推动农村居民向更高层次的消费转型。通过空间杜宾模型分析，本研究发现该过程存在空间溢出效应：某一区域的金融发展会推动本地农村消费结构升级，却会抑制邻近区域的相关发展。在各细分维度中，覆盖广度的影响最为显著。此类金融发展通过提升农业生产效率与农村居民经营收入，作用于消费结构，其中对经营收入的影响尤为突出。但在农村消费结构优化方面，东、中、西部地区存在显著差异：东部地区获益更多，而中西部地区的政策效应较为有限，甚至有时会产生负向影响。因此，政策制定过程中应充分兼顾区域异质性，以缩小数字普惠金融发展差距，实现高质量可持续发展。