Replication Data for: "This Rally is not Authorized": Preventive Repression and Public Opinion in Electoral Autocracies

Does preventive repression dampen or does it bolster mass support for groups that dissent despite obstruction? While a large literature recognizes the importance of preventive repression for authoritarian stability, we know very little about its effects on public opinion. To gain traction on this question I draw on evidence from unusually detailed data on unauthorized and authorized protest from Russia and an original survey experiment. I show that when the authorities engage in preventive repression, such as when they deny protest authorizations, protesters’ ability to generate support is compromised. Preventive repression also conditions the effect of nonviolent demonstrator tactics on public opinion. These effects, however, are contingent on citizen attitudes about the law and the authorities. Findings, which provide one of the first causal tests of the mass opinion effects of preventive repression, expand understanding of the consequences and audiences of repression and have implications for studies of authoritarian resilience.

预防性镇压究竟会削弱还是增强民众对遭遇阻挠的异见团体的支持？尽管已有大量文献证实预防性镇压对威权政权稳定的重要性，但学界对其对公众舆论的影响却知之甚少。为解答这一问题，本研究依托俄罗斯境内未经批准与经批准抗议活动的极为详尽的数据集，以及一项原创性调查实验展开实证分析。研究结果表明，当当局实施预防性镇压（例如拒绝抗议活动的许可申请）时，抗议者争取公众支持的能力将受到损害。此外，预防性镇压还会调节非暴力示威策略对公众舆论的作用效果，但这类效应取决于公民对法律与当局的态度。本研究是首批针对预防性镇压的公众舆论效应开展因果检验的研究之一，其结果加深了学界对镇压行为的后果与受众群体的理解，同时对威权韧性相关研究具有重要启示意义。