<p>Firms’ bank debt under uncertainty.</p>

This study examines the impact of banking uncertainty on intangible investments, in the context that there has been a growing body of literature addressing the ramifications of aggregate uncertainty on overall investment or physical investment. Based on data from 619 non-financial listed companies and 40 commercial banks in Vietnam between 2007 and 2022, we perform empirical regression analysis using the dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations since firms’ investment behavior is significantly persistent. We make our investigations more relevant and comprehensive by considering banking uncertainty in Vietnam’s bank-based market and delving into the underlying mechanisms through which banking uncertainty impacts corporate investments. Our findings reveal that firms tend to curtail their intangible asset investments in response to higher banking sector uncertainty, albeit the magnitude of the impact is economically weak. Differently, banking uncertainty substantially constrains investments in tangible fixed assets. We further provide evidence on financial conditions (captured by the cost of debt, financing constraints, and firms’ bank debt) as a driving force underlying the relationship between banking uncertainty and tangible assets, but not intangible investments. Our results remain robust after considering alternative variables, accounting for potential structural disruptions arising from crises, and addressing potential endogeneity concerns.

鉴于当前已有大量文献探讨总不确定性对整体投资或实物投资的影响后果，本研究聚焦于银行业不确定性对企业无形资产投资的作用。基于越南2007至2022年间619家非金融上市公司与40家商业银行的数据，考虑到企业投资行为具有显著持续性，我们采用动态广义矩估计（dynamic generalized method of moments, GMM）开展实证回归分析。为使研究更具现实相关性与全面性，我们结合越南银行主导型金融市场的背景考量银行业不确定性，并深入剖析银行业不确定性影响企业投资的内在传导机制。研究结果显示，面对更高的银行业不确定性，企业往往会缩减无形资产投资，尽管该影响的经济幅度较弱；与之不同的是，银行业不确定性会显著制约有形固定资产投资。我们进一步验证了金融状况（以债务成本、融资约束与企业银行债务衡量）作为银行业不确定性与有形固定资产投资间关系的驱动因素，但未发现其对无形资产投资存在类似作用。在更换变量衡量方式、考虑危机引发的潜在结构性扰动以及处理潜在内生性问题后，本文结论依然保持稳健。