The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased Than in Major Currencies

any studies have replicated the finding that the forward rate is a biased predictor of the future change in the spot exchange rate. Usually the forward discount actually points in the wrong direction. But virtually all those studies apply to advanced economies and major currencies. We apply the same

许多研究已重复验证了这一发现：远期汇率（forward rate）是即期汇率（spot exchange rate）未来变动的有偏预测因子。通常，远期贴水（forward discount）实际上指向错误方向。但几乎所有这些研究均适用于发达经济体及主要货币。我们将同样的