Replication Data for: Do Earthquakes Increase or Decrease Crime?

There is theoretical divergence over how earthquakes affect crime. On the one hand, earthquakes improve individual cooperation, social trust, and crime reduction. On the other hand, earthquakes impact state capacity and enhance the prevalence of motivated offenders such as street gangs. This study empirically analyzes the effects of the September 2017 earthquakes in Mexico on personal crimes (assault and aggravated assault) and property crimes (vehicle theft, residential burglary, and vandalism). Using official police data, a difference-in-differences technique, and an event-study design, the results show that earthquakes increased assault by 14 percent and vandalism by 8 percent.

关于地震对犯罪的影响，学界尚未形成统一的理论认知。一方面，地震可促进个体间协作、提升社会信任水平，进而推动犯罪率下降；另一方面，地震会对国家治理能力造成冲击，并加剧街头帮派等有犯罪动机的犯罪群体的活跃度。本研究针对2017年9月墨西哥地震开展实证分析，考察其对侵犯人身权利罪（故意伤害与加重故意伤害）以及财产罪（车辆盗窃、入户盗窃与故意毁坏财物）的影响。研究采用官方警务数据、双重差分法（difference-in-differences）与事件研究法（event-study design）进行计量分析，结果显示，地震使得故意伤害案件数量上升14%，故意毁坏财物案件数量上升8%。