Bioclimatic zoning and trend analysis applied to broilers

ABSTRACT The objective of the present study was to establish the bioclimatic zoning by the temperature and humidity index (THI), considering a historical period and a future scenario, in order to represent the thermal environment for broiler breeding in the State of Minas Gerais. A historical series (1976 - 2014) of THI minimum, average and maximum calculated based on data from 48 conventional meteorological stations was used, belonging to the National Institute of Meteorology of the State of Minas Gerais. The analysis of the temporal series was based on the Mann-Kendall test and linear regression. A geostatistical analysis was also carried out to determine the comfort zoning of broilers as a function of the THI intervals. In this way, the THI spatial mapping methodologies and trend analysis for the prediction of a possible future climate scenario can help in the development of risk maps for monitoring thermal comfort of broilers, being indispensable in the planning of actions for the mitigation of the climatic change impacts on the productive chain of the State of Minas Gerais.

摘要：本研究旨在依托温湿度指数（Temperature and Humidity Index, THI），结合历史时段与未来情景开展生物气候区划，以表征米纳斯吉拉斯州肉鸡养殖的热环境。本研究采用米纳斯吉拉斯州国家气象局下属48个常规气象站点的观测数据，计算得到1976-2014年的最低、平均与最高温湿度指数历史序列；时序分析采用曼-肯德尔（Mann-Kendall）检验与线性回归方法；此外还开展了地统计分析，以基于温湿度指数区间划定肉鸡热舒适区划。综上，用于潜在未来气候情景预测的温湿度指数空间制图方法与趋势分析，可助力构建肉鸡热舒适监测风险地图，对制定减缓气候变化对米纳斯吉拉斯州养殖产业链影响的相关行动规划不可或缺。