Age-by-Race Specific Crime Rates, 1965-1985: [United States]

These data examine the effects on total crime rates of changes in the demographic composition of the population and changes in criminality of specific age and race groups. The collection contains estimates from national data of annual age-by-race specific arrest rates and crime rates for murder, robbery, and burglary over the 21-year period 1965-1985. The data address the following questions: (1) Are the crime rates reported by the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) data series valid indicators of national crime trends? (2) How much of the change between 1965 and 1985 in total crime rates for murder, robbery, and burglary is attributable to changes in the age and race composition of the population, and how much is accounted for by changes in crime rates within age-by-race specific subgroups? (3) What are the effects of age and race on subgroup crime rates for murder, robbery, and burglary? (4) What is the effect of time period on subgroup crime rates for murder, robbery, and burglary? (5) What is the effect of birth cohort, particularly the effect of the very large (baby-boom) cohorts following World War II, on subgroup crime rates for murder, robbery, and burglary? (6) What is the effect of interactions among age, race, time period, and cohort on subgroup crime rates for murder, robbery, and burglary? (7) How do patterns of age-by-race specific crime rates for murder, robbery, and burglary compare for different demographic subgroups? The variables in this study fall into four categories. The first category includes variables that define the race-age cohort of the unit of observation. The values of these variables are directly available from UCR and include year of observation (from 1965-1985), age group, and race. The second category of variables were computed using UCR data pertaining to the first category of variables. These are period, birth cohort of age group in each year, and average cohort size for each single age within each single group. The third category includes variables that describe the annual age-by-race specific arrest rates for the different crime types. These variables were estimated for race, age, group, crime type, and year using data directly available from UCR and population estimates from Census publications. The fourth category includes variables similar to the third group. Data for estimating these variables were derived from available UCR data on the total number of offenses known to the police and total arrests in combination with the age-by-race specific arrest rates for the different crime types.

本数据集旨在研究人口统计学构成变化及特定年龄和种族群体犯罪倾向变化对总体犯罪率的影响。该数据集包含1965-1985年这21年间，基于全国数据估算的谋杀、抢劫和入室盗窃三类犯罪的年度按年龄-种族划分的特定逮捕率与犯罪率。

本数据集旨在解答以下问题：（1）统一犯罪报告（Uniform Crime Reports, UCR）数据系列所报告的犯罪率是否为全国犯罪趋势的有效指标？（2）1965-1985年间谋杀、抢劫和入室盗窃的总体犯罪率变化中，有多少可归因于人口年龄和种族构成的变化，又有多少源于按年龄-种族划分的特定亚群体内部犯罪率的变化？（3）年龄和种族对谋杀、抢劫和入室盗窃亚群体犯罪率有何影响？（4）时间段对谋杀、抢劫和入室盗窃亚群体犯罪率有何影响？（5）出生队列（尤其是二战后规模庞大的婴儿潮队列）对谋杀、抢劫和入室盗窃亚群体犯罪率有何影响？（6）年龄、种族、时间段与队列之间的交互作用对谋杀、抢劫和入室盗窃亚群体犯罪率有何影响？（7）不同人口统计学亚群体的谋杀、抢劫和入室盗窃按年龄-种族划分的特定犯罪率模式存在怎样的差异？

本研究中的变量分为四类：第一类包含定义观察单位种族-年龄队列的变量，其取值直接来自UCR，包括观察年份（1965-1985）、年龄组和种族；第二类变量通过与第一类变量相关的UCR数据计算得出，包括时间段、每年各年龄组的出生队列及每个群体内各单一年龄的平均队列规模；第三类变量描述不同犯罪类型的年度按年龄-种族划分的特定逮捕率，这些变量基于UCR直接提供的数据及人口普查出版物中的人口估算值，针对种族、年龄组、犯罪类型和年份进行估算；第四类变量与第三类相似，其估算数据来源于UCR中已知的警方记录犯罪总数、总逮捕数，以及不同犯罪类型按年龄-种族划分的特定逮捕率的组合数据。