Reconstruction of the 1938 Hurricane in New England and Hurricane Hugo in Puerto Rico

This study examined landscape and regional impacts of the 1938 Hurricane in New England and Hurricane Hugo in Puerto Rico, with a focus on the Harvard Forest and the Luquillo Expermental Forest. For details on methods and results, please see the published paper (Boose, E. R., D. R. Foster and M. Fluet. 1994. Hurricane impacts to tropical and temperate forest landscapes. Ecological Monographs 64(4): 369-400). The Abstract from the paper is reproduced below. "Hurricanes represent an important natural disturbance process to tropical and temperate forests in many coastal areas of the world. The complex patterns of damage created in forests by hurricane winds result from the interaction of meteorological, physiographic, and biotic factors on a range of spatial scales. To improve our understanding of these factors and of the role of catastrophic hurricane wind as a disturbance process, we take an integrative approach. A simple meteorological model (HURRECON) utilizes meteorological data to reconstruct wind conditions at specific sites and regional gradients in wind speed and direction during a hurricane. A simple topograhic exposure model (EXPOS) utilizes wind direction predicted by HURRECON and a digital elevation map to estimate landscape-level exposure to the strongest winds. Actual damage to forest stands is assessed through analysis of remotely sensed, historical, and field data. "These techniques were used to evaluate the characteristics and impacts of two important hurricanes: Hurricane Hugo (1989) in Puerto Rico and the 1938 New England Hurricane, storms of comparable magnitude in regions that differ greatly in climate, vegetation, physiography, and disturbance regimes. In both cases patterns of damage on a regional scale were found to agree with the predicted distribution of peak wind gust velocities. On a landscape scale there was also good agreement between patterns of forest damage and predicted exposure in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico and the town of Petersham, Massachusetts. At the Harvard and Pisgah Forests in central New England the average orientation of wind-thrown trees was very close to the predicted peak wind direction, while at Luquillo there was also good agreement, with some apparent modification of wind direction by the mountainous terrain. At Harvard Forest there was evidence that trees more susceptible to windthrow were felled earlier in the storm. "This approach may be used to study the effects of topography on wind direction and the relation of forest damage to wind speed and duration; to establish broad-scale gradients of hurricane frequency, intensity, and wind direction for particular regions; and to determine landscape-level exposure to long-term hurricane disturbance at particular sites."

本研究针对新英格兰地区1938年飓风与波多黎各的雨果飓风（Hurricane Hugo）所引发的景观与区域尺度影响开展分析，重点聚焦哈佛大学森林（Harvard Forest）与卢奎略实验林（Luquillo Experimental Forest）。有关研究方法与结果的详细内容，请参阅已发表学术论文：Boose, E. R., D. R. Foster与M. Fluet. 1994. 飓风对热带与温带森林景观的影响. 《生态专论》(Ecological Monographs) 64(4): 369-400。
该论文的摘要如下：
"飓风是全球多数沿海热带与温带森林面临的重要自然干扰过程。飓风风力在森林中形成的复杂破坏格局，是气象、地形地貌与生物因子在不同空间尺度上相互作用的结果。为深化我们对这些因子以及灾难性飓风风力作为干扰过程的作用机制的理解，本研究采用整合性研究方法。
我们构建了简易气象模型（HURRECON），可利用气象数据重建飓风过境期间特定站点的风况，以及区域尺度的风速与风向梯度。同时开发了简易地形暴露模型（EXPOS），该模型结合HURRECON预测的风向与数字高程地图，可估算景观尺度下极端强风的暴露风险。通过对遥感、历史与实地调查数据的分析，我们完成了林分实际破坏情况的评估。
"上述技术被用于评估两场标志性飓风的特征与影响：波多黎各1989年的雨果飓风，以及1938年新英格兰飓风——这两场风暴强度相当，但所在区域的气候、植被、地形地貌与干扰体系均存在显著差异。
在区域尺度上，两场飓风的破坏格局均与预测的最大阵风风速分布高度吻合。在景观尺度上，波多黎各卢奎略实验林与马萨诸塞州彼得舍姆镇的森林破坏格局与预测的暴露程度同样匹配良好。在新英格兰中部的哈佛大学森林与皮斯加森林（Pisgah Forest），风倒木的平均朝向与预测的最大风向极为接近；而在卢奎略地区，尽管山地地形对风向存在一定明显的改造作用，但两者的匹配度依然较好。在哈佛大学森林中，有证据表明更易发生风倒的树木在风暴过程中更早被吹倒。
"该方法可用于研究地形对风向的影响，以及森林破坏与风速、持续时间之间的关联；可用于构建特定区域的飓风频率、强度与风向的大尺度梯度；还可用于确定特定站点在长期飓风干扰下的景观尺度暴露水平。"