Data from Better than expected: the influence of option expectations during decision-making

Our choices often arise from a consideration of options presented in a sequence (e.g. the products in a supermarket row). However, whether the precise sequential order of option presentation affects decision-making remains poorly understood. A recent model of choice proposes that, in a set of options presented sequentially, those that are better than expected will be perceived as more valuable, even when options are objectively equivalent within the set. Inspired by this proposal, we devised a novel decision-making task where we manipulated the order of option presentation together with expectations about option value. Even when we compared trials that were exactly equivalent except for option order, we observed a striking preference for options that were better than expected. Our findings show that expectations about options affect which option will be favoured within a sequence, an influence which is manifested as a preference for better-than-expected options. The findings have potential practical implications, as for example they may help policymakers in devising nudge strategies that rely on ad-hoc option orders.

人类的决策往往源于对序列呈现选项的考量（例如超市货架上陈列的商品）。然而，选项呈现的精确序列顺序是否会影响决策，目前仍不甚明晰。近期一项决策模型提出：在序列呈现的选项集合中，即便集合内各选项的客观价值完全一致，相较于预期更优的选项，其感知价值也会更高。受该理论启发，我们设计了一项全新的决策任务，在任务中同时操控选项的呈现顺序与选项价值预期。即便仅对比除选项呈现顺序外完全等效的实验试次，我们仍观察到受试者对优于预期选项的显著偏好倾向。本研究结果表明，对选项的价值预期会影响序列中受青睐的选项，这种影响具体体现为对优于预期选项的偏好。本研究结果具备潜在的实践应用价值，例如可助力政策制定者设计依托临时定制选项呈现顺序的助推策略。