The of Urumqi in recent years.

The ecological threshold has not yet formed a unified definition, and there is no definition for “the threshold of the supply and demand of ecosystem services (TrSD)”, leading to no limitation of the negative impact of production and life behavior on the supply and demand of ecosystem services. This study defined and set TrSD, and took Urumqi as an example to carry out a case study. Firstly, the concept of TrSD was elaborated referred to multiple definitions of the ecological threshold based on “the difference between the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESr)”. Then, the geographical simulation and optimization system- future land use simulation (GeoSOS-FLUS) software was used to simulate future land use. After that, the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) matrix model was applied to calculate ESr. Finally, the TrSD was determined via the inflection point analysis of ESr. This study concludes that the proposed TrSD and its systematic calculation method are innovative and rational. The results can be used for ecosystem service management and ecological valuation, which helps the sustainability progress of the global.

生态阈值（ecological threshold）尚未形成统一的定义，而“生态服务供需阈值（threshold of the supply and demand of ecosystem services, TrSD）”尚无明确定义，这导致生产生活行为对生态服务供需的负面影响缺乏有效约束。本研究对TrSD进行了明确界定，并以乌鲁木齐市为研究案例开展实证分析。首先，基于“生态服务供需差（the supply and demand of ecosystem services, ESr）”，结合多项生态阈值的既有定义，阐释了TrSD的概念内涵；随后，采用地理模拟与优化系统-未来土地利用模拟（GeoSOS-FLUS）软件模拟未来土地利用情景；继而通过土地利用与土地覆被（Land Use and Land Cover, LULC）矩阵模型计算ESr；最终通过ESr的拐点分析（inflection point analysis）确定TrSD。本研究认为，所提出的TrSD及其系统化计算方法兼具创新性与合理性，研究结果可应用于生态服务管理与生态价值评估，有助于推进全球可持续发展进程。