Table_2_Responding to Climate Change: Participatory Evaluation of Adaptation Options for Key Marine Fisheries in Australia’s South East.pdf

Planned adaptation to climate impacts and subsequent vulnerabilities will necessarily interact with autonomous responses enabled within existing fisheries management processes and initiated by the harvest and post-harvest components of fishing industries. Optimal adaptation options are those which enable negative effects to be mitigated and opportunities that arise to be maximized, both in relation to specific climate-driven changes and the broader fisheries system. We developed a two-step participatory approach to evaluating adaption options for key fisheries in the fast-warming hotspot of south-eastern Australia. Four fisheries (southern rock lobster, abalone, snapper, and blue grenadier) were selected as case studies on the basis of their high to moderate vulnerability to climatic effects on species distribution and abundance. Involved stakeholders undertook a “first pass” screening assessment of options, by characterizing and then evaluating options. In the characterization step potential adaptation options for each fishery, contextualized by prior knowledge of each species’ climate change exposure and sensitivity, were described using a characterization matrix. This matrix included: the specific climate vulnerability/challenges, the implications of each option on the fishery system as a whole, the temporal and spatial scales of implementation processes, and realized benefits and costs. In the evaluation step, semi-quantitative evaluation of options was undertaken by stakeholders scoring the anticipated performance of an option against a pre-determined set of criteria relating to perceived feasibility, risk (inclusive of potential costs), and benefit. Reduction of the total annual commercial catch as well as reductions in both effort and catch through spatial and temporal closures were the options scored as having the highest level of expected benefit and of feasibility and the lowest level of risk of negative outcomes overall. Our screening assessment represents a pragmatic approach to evaluate and compare support for and the effects of alternative adaptation options prior to committing to more detailed formal and resource intensive evaluation or implementation.

针对气候影响及后续脆弱性的计划性适应措施，必然会与现有渔业管理流程内、由捕捞产业的捕捞及捕捞后环节所催生的自主响应产生交互作用。最优适应方案需同时针对具体气候驱动变化与整体渔业系统，实现负面影响的减缓与潜在机遇的最大化。我们开发了一种两步式参与式方法，用于评估澳大利亚东南部快速变暖气候热点区域内重点渔业的适应方案。我们选取了四种渔业作为案例研究：南方岩龙虾（southern rock lobster）、鲍鱼（abalone）、笛鲷（snapper）及蓝无须鳕（blue grenadier），这些渔业因在物种分布与丰度受气候影响方面具有中至高脆弱性而入选。参与的利益相关方通过先定性描述再评估的方式，对各类方案开展了「初筛（first pass）」评估。在定性描述环节，我们结合各物种气候变化暴露程度与敏感性的既有研究知识，针对每种渔业的潜在适应方案，通过定性描述矩阵进行了阐述。该矩阵涵盖以下内容：具体的气候脆弱性/挑战、各方案对整体渔业系统的影响、方案实施的时空尺度，以及实际收益与成本。在评估环节，利益相关方依据预先设定的评估标准，对方案的预期表现进行打分，以此完成半定量评估，这些标准涵盖可感知的可行性、风险（含潜在成本）与收益。其中，通过时空休渔措施减少年度总商业捕捞量，以及降低捕捞努力量与捕捞量的方案，被评为整体预期收益最高、可行性最强且负面结果风险最低的方案。本初筛评估为在开展更细致、正式且资源消耗量大的正式评估或实施前，对不同适应方案的支持度与影响进行评估与比较提供了一种务实的路径。