Table_1_Local Sea-Level Rise Caused by Climate Change in the Northwest Pacific Marginal Seas Using Dynamical Downscaling.DOCX

Global climate models (GCMs) have limited capacity in simulating spatially non-uniform sea-level rise owing to their coarse resolutions and absence of tides in the marginal seas. Here, regional ocean climate models (RCMs) that consider tides were used to address these limitations in the Northwest Pacific marginal seas through dynamical downscaling. Four GCMs that drive the RCMs were selected based on a performance evaluation along the RCM boundaries, and the latter were validated by comparing historical results with observations. High-resolution (1/20°) RCMs were used to project non-uniform changes in the sea-level under intermediate (RCP 4.5) and high-end emissions (RCP 8.5) scenarios from 2006 to 2100. The predicted local sea-level rise was higher in the East/Japan Sea (EJS), where the currents and eddy motions were active. The tidal amplitude changes in response to sea-level rise were significant in the shallow areas of the Yellow Sea (YS). Dynamically downscaled simulations enabled the determination of practical sea-level rise (PSLR), including changes in tidal amplitude and natural variability. Under RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum PSLR was ∼85 cm in the YS and East China Sea (ECS), and ∼78 cm in the EJS. The contribution of natural sea-level variability changes in the EJS was greater than that in the YS and ECS, whereas changes in the tidal contribution were higher in the YS and ECS. Accordingly, high-resolution RCMs provided spatially different PSLR estimates, indicating the importance of improving model resolution for local sea-level projections in marginal seas.

全球气候模式（Global Climate Models，GCMs）因分辨率较粗且未考虑边缘海潮汐过程，在模拟空间非均匀海平面上升方面能力有限。针对西北太平洋边缘海的这一局限，本文采用考虑潮汐过程的区域海洋气候模式（Regional Ocean Climate Models，RCMs），通过动力降尺度方法开展相关研究。研究基于区域海洋气候模式边界的性能评估，筛选出4个驱动模式的全球气候模式，并通过将模拟结果与观测数据对比，对区域海洋气候模式进行了验证。本研究采用高分辨率（1/20°）的区域海洋气候模式，预估了2006年至2100年间中等排放（RCP 4.5，Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5）和高排放（RCP 8.5，Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5）情景下的海平面非均匀变化。预估结果显示，海流与涡旋活动活跃的东日本海（East/Japan Sea，EJS）局地海平面上升幅度更高。黄海（Yellow Sea，YS）浅水区的潮汐振幅随海平面上升的变化较为显著。动力降尺度模拟可用于估算包含潮汐振幅变化与自然变率影响的实际海平面上升（Practical Sea-Level Rise，PSLR）。在RCP 8.5情景下，黄海与东海（East China Sea，ECS）的最大实际海平面上升约为85厘米，东日本海约为78厘米。东日本海的自然海平面变率贡献大于黄海与东海，而潮汐贡献的变化则在黄海与东海中更为显著。综上，高分辨率区域海洋气候模式给出了空间分布各异的实际海平面上升预估结果，表明提升边缘海局地海平面预估的模式分辨率具有重要意义。