Why Has U.S. Policy Uncertainty Risen Since 1960?

There appears to be a strong upward drift in policy-related economic uncertainty after 1960. We consider two classes of explanations for this rise. The first stresses growth in government spending, taxes, and regulation. A second stresses increased political polarization and its implications for the

1960年后，政策相关的经济不确定性呈现出显著的上升趋势。我们针对这一趋势提出两类解释：其一强调政府支出、税收与监管的扩张；其二则聚焦于政治极化（political polarization）程度的加剧及其对……的影响。