Measuring and Predicting Iowa Farmers’ Current and Potential Future Use of Cover Crops

Iowa currently relies on voluntary mechanisms to promote the adoption of agricultural conservation practices to mitigate soil and water quality impacts. We draw on the reasoned action approach and diffusion-adoption frameworks to understand individual-level and external factors that influence farmers’ adoption of cover crops, an agricultural conservation practice. We examined farmers’ likelihoods of being a firm nonuser, a potential future user, or a current user of cover crops. Using data from a survey of 6,006 Iowa farmers, we conducted a multinomial logistic regression to analyze predictors of adoption and potential future adoption of cover crops. Positive predictors include no-till usage; support for environmental action; influence by local social networks and public agencies; and pasture acres. Negative predictors include rented land and perceptions about agronomic barriers to Iowa water quality improvement. This work explores variation among non-adopters and contributes to a more nuanced understanding of potential future adopters of cover crops in Iowa.

艾奥瓦州（Iowa）目前依托自愿性机制推广农业保护实践，以缓解其对土壤与水质造成的负面影响。本研究采用理性行动理论（reasoned action approach）与创新扩散-采纳框架（diffusion-adoption frameworks），剖析影响农户采纳覆盖作物（cover crops，一项农业保护措施）的个体层面与外部层面驱动因素。本研究将农户划分为三类：坚定非使用者、潜在未来使用者与当前使用者，并测算其归属各类别的概率。本研究基于针对6006名艾奥瓦州农户的调研数据，运用多项逻辑回归（multinomial logistic regression）模型，分析覆盖作物采纳行为与潜在未来采纳行为的影响因子。正向影响因子包括免耕种植行为、对环保行动的支持态度、本地社交网络与公共机构的影响，以及牧场面积；负向影响因子则包括租佃经营土地，以及对艾奥瓦州水质改善存在农艺层面障碍的认知。本研究揭示了非采纳群体的异质性特征，有助于更细致地理解艾奥瓦州覆盖作物潜在未来采纳者的群体画像。