Root Mean Square Difference between the nine ensemble member change anomalies of the seasonal mean near-surface (2m) temperature for the 90% percentile for 2036 - 2065 relative to 1976-2005, for the JJA season, under the RCP 4.5 pathway|气候变化预测数据集|模型不确定性数据集

Root Mean Square Difference for seasonal (JJA) mean near-surface (2m) temperature (°C) change from the 90% percentile projected for 2036-2065, relative to present (1976 - 2005), under the RCP 4.5 pathway for the southern African region. To generate the image, nine coarse General Circulation Models (GCM) are downscaled to a finer spatial resolution (0.44°x 0.44°) using the Rossby Centre regional model (RCA4) forcing its lateral boundaries. The model simulated daily temperature averages, which are used to generate projections of seasonal change. The projections are generated using the medium to low (RCP4.5) pathway which associates CO2 concentrations of approximately 560ppm by the year 2100. The associated RMSD it calculated and shows the uncertainty range of the projected model simulated residual values, and gives a relative perspective of spatial areas associated with higher and lower projection uncertainties.