Spatial determinants and underlying drivers of land-use transitions in European Russia from 1770 to 2010

Historic land-use and land-cover data are important inputs for assessing the impacts of human activity on the environment. Our goal was to reconstruct land-cover change from 1770 to 2010 and to evaluate its spatial determinants and underlying drivers for three study sites in diverse agroecological settings in Ryazan province in European Russia. We used historic maps and statistics as well as satellite imagery to reconstruct land-cover change and categorize it into six distinct land-management regimes. We applied spatially-explicit logistic regressions to assess which spatial determinants have had the strongest influences on land cover and how these influences have changed over time. Our results show how long-term land-cover trajectories can be modulated by broad political and economic alterations, rather than through gradual and local demand-side pressures from a rising population density and an increasing local demand for agricultural commodities.

历史土地利用与土地覆被（land-use and land-cover）数据是评估人类活动对环境影响的关键输入数据。本研究旨在重建1770年至2010年的土地覆被变化过程，并针对欧洲俄罗斯梁赞省（Ryazan province）不同农业生态环境下的3个研究样区，评估其空间影响因子与潜在驱动机制。本研究借助历史地图、统计资料与卫星影像完成土地覆被变化重建，并将其划分为6种不同的土地管理模式（land-management regimes）。本研究采用空间显式逻辑回归模型（spatially-explicit logistic regressions），评估哪些空间因子对土地覆被的影响最为显著，并分析这些影响随时间的变化规律。研究结果表明，长期土地覆被变化轨迹主要受宏观政治与经济变革的调控，而非由人口密度上升、本地农产品需求增长所带来的渐进式本地需求侧压力驱动。