A next generation of conditional cash transfer programs

Abstract This article evaluates the role of the Brazilian federal Conditional Cash Transfer programs (CCTs) such as Bolsa Família and Bolsa Escola during the past recent years and discusses their future. Based on previous empirical evidence based on my own work, I propose an integrated framework with two complementary perspectives. The first perspective is a goal approach based on the short term aggregated influences exerted by these programs, organized under four headings, namely: equality, prosperity, stability and sensibility. The emphasis here is to compare the results of Bolsa Família with other official programs such as BPC and Social Security benefits. The second perspective follows a means approach inspecting the microeconomic mechanisms through which CCTs operate, comparing the impacts on CCTs beneficiaries versus non-beneficiaries. Such perspective helps in dialoguing about the relevance of different CCTs attributes, and to discuss possible desirable upgrades.

摘要：本文评估了近年巴西联邦层面有条件现金转移支付计划（Conditional Cash Transfer programs，简称CCTs）——如巴西家庭补助金（Bolsa Família）与巴西学校补助金（Bolsa Escola）——的政策作用，并探讨了其未来发展路径。基于笔者过往的实证研究成果，本文提出了一套兼具双重互补视角的整合分析框架。其一为目标导向路径，基于此类计划产生的短期总体影响，从公平、繁荣、稳定与敏感性四大维度展开分析，研究核心为将巴西家庭补助金与其他官方项目（如BPC与社会保障福利）的实施成效进行对比；其二为手段导向路径，探究有条件现金转移支付计划的运行微观经济机制，并对比计划受益群体与非受益群体所受的政策影响。该视角有助于厘清不同有条件现金转移支付计划属性的相关价值，并研讨可行的优化升级方向。