Data From: The Future of OA: A large-scale analysis projecting Open Access publication and readership

This is the raw data behind the publication on bioRxiv at https://doi.org/10.1101/795310: 

Piwowar, Priem, Orr (2019) The Future of OA: A large-scale analysis projecting Open Access publication and readership. bioRxiv: https://doi.org/10.1101/795310

The jupyter notebook that produces the manuscript using the data here is available at: https://github.com/Impactstory/future-oa

Summary:

Understanding the growth of open access (OA) is important for deciding funder policy, subscription allocation, and infrastructure planning.

This study analyses the number of papers available as OA over time. The models includes both OA embargo data and the relative growth rates of different OA types over time, based on the OA status of 70 million journal articles published between 1950 and 2019.

The study also looks at article usage data, analyzing the proportion of views to OA articles vs views to articles which are closed access. Signal processing techniques are used to model how these viewership patterns change over time. Viewership data is based on 2.8 million uses of the Unpaywall browser extension in July 2019.

We found that Green, Gold, and Hybrid papers receive more views than their Closed or Bronze counterparts, particularly Green papers made available within a year of publication. We also found that the proportion of Green, Gold, and Hybrid articles is growing most quickly.

In 2019:

31% of all journal articles are available as OA

52% of article views are to OA articles

Given existing trends, we estimate that by 2025:

44% of all journal articles will be available as OA

70% of article views will be to OA articles

The declining relevance of closed access articles is likely to change the landscape of scholarly communication in the years to come.

本数据集对应bioRxiv平台上的如下发表论文：https://doi.org/10.1101/795310：

Piwowar、Priem与Orr（2019）：《开放获取的未来：一项预测开放获取发表与阅读量的大规模分析》，bioRxiv：https://doi.org/10.1101/795310

使用本数据集生成该论文手稿的Jupyter笔记本（Jupyter Notebook）可从以下地址获取：https://github.com/Impactstory/future-oa

摘要：

明晰开放获取（Open Access，以下简称OA）的发展态势，对于资助方政策制定、订阅资源分配以及基础设施规划均具有重要意义。

本研究分析了随时间推移可通过开放获取获取的论文数量。本研究基于1950年至2019年间发表的7000万篇期刊论文的开放获取状态，构建的模型同时纳入了开放获取延迟公开期（embargo）数据以及不同类型开放获取随时间推移的相对增长率。

本研究同时分析了论文使用数据，对比了开放获取论文与闭访问论文的浏览量占比情况。本研究采用信号处理技术，对上述阅读模式随时间的变化趋势进行建模。本次研究所用的阅读量数据来源于2019年7月期间280万次Unpaywall浏览器扩展插件的使用记录。

本研究发现，绿色开放获取（Green OA）、金色开放获取（Gold OA）与混合开放获取（Hybrid OA）论文的浏览量均高于其闭访问与青铜开放获取（Bronze OA）同类论文，其中在发表后一年内即可开放获取的绿色开放获取论文尤为显著。同时，绿色、金色与混合开放获取论文的占比增速最快。

2019年时：
所有期刊论文中有31%可通过开放获取获取
期刊论文总浏览量中有52%来自开放获取论文

基于现有趋势，本研究预估至2025年：
所有期刊论文中将有44%可通过开放获取获取
期刊论文总浏览量中将有70%来自开放获取论文

闭访问论文的学术相关性持续下降，这或将在未来数年改变学术传播的整体格局。