Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication Climate Risk Management

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports between April 1, 2012 and March 31, 2014, sampled from ten agricultural trade publications. The results lead us to suggest that trade publications’ 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought discussion lacked information that would allow farmers and agricultural advisors to assess climate change risk and subsequent potential adaptive management strategies. Agricultural risk from climate change is very real, and farmers will need to adapt. The agricultural trade publications studied missed an opportunity to convey risk from climate change and the transformative adaptation practices necessary for a sustainable and resilient agricultural system. Grant no. NA13OAR431012

2012年，美国中西部遭遇了一场极具破坏性的干旱，导致玉米与大豆单产下降，病虫害发生率上升。由气候变化引发的天气变异性与极端事件预计在未来将进一步加剧，且目前已对农业领域造成影响，并将持续产生冲击。本研究围绕三个维度展开调查：一是农业贸易出版物如何报道2012年美国中西部干旱事件；二是气候变化是否与该干旱存在关联；三是此类出版物是否阐明了农民可采取的变革性适应措施，以提升其应对未来气候不确定性的适应能力。我们从10家农业贸易出版物中抽样选取了2012年4月1日至2014年3月31日期间的1000篇媒体报道，并对其开展了内容分析（content analysis）。研究结果表明，相关贸易出版物对2012年美国中西部干旱的讨论内容，未能提供可供农民与农业顾问评估气候变化风险及后续潜在适应性管理策略的有效信息。气候变化带来的农业风险绝非虚言，农民亟需采取适应举措。本次研究涉及的农业贸易出版物，错失了向受众传递气候变化风险，以及推广构建可持续且具备韧性的农业系统所需的变革性适应实践的良机。资助编号：NA13OAR431012