The Role of Expert Judgment in Statistical Inference and Evidence-Based Decision-Making

This article resulted from our participation in the session on the “role of expert opinion and judgment in statistical inference” at the October 2017 ASA Symposium on Statistical Inference. We present a strong, unified statement on roles of expert judgment in statistics with processes for obtaining input, whether from a Bayesian or frequentist perspective. Topics include the role of subjectivity in the cycle of scientific inference and decisions, followed by a clinical trial and a greenhouse gas emissions case study that illustrate the role of judgments and the importance of basing them on objective information and a comprehensive uncertainty assessment. We close with a call for increased proactivity and involvement of statisticians in study conceptualization, design, conduct, analysis, and communication.

本文源于我们参与2017年10月美国统计协会（American Statistical Association, ASA）统计推断专题研讨会中“专家意见与判断在统计推断中的作用”分论坛的工作。针对专家判断在统计学中的作用，本文提出了严谨统一的论述，并给出了无论从贝叶斯（Bayesian）还是频率学派（frequentist）视角获取专家输入的规范流程。本文涵盖的主题包括主观性在科学推断与决策循环中的作用，随后辅以临床试验与温室气体排放两个案例研究，用以阐明判断的价值，以及基于客观信息与全面不确定性评估开展判断的重要性。文末我们呼吁统计学家应更加主动地参与到研究的概念构思、方案设计、实施执行、数据分析与成果传播全流程中。