<b>Local labour market conditions and electoral behaviour in Italy 2006-2022</b>

What is the causal impact of local employment dynamics on electoral behaviour? We combine Italian labour market area-level data for four national elections (2008, 2013, 2018 and 2022) with a shift-share IV estimation design to identify how local labour market conditions, captured by changes in the employment rate, affect voter participation and incumbent support. Our baseline estimates show that a 1 p.p. drop in the employment rate yields a significant 0.76 p.p. increase in turnout and a 0.80 p.p. decline in incumbent vote share. Further analyses reveal crucial nuances. First, exploring mediation, we find that higher turnout in response to worsening labour market conditions accounts for roughly one-quarter of the total negative impact on incumbent support via a participation channel. Second, the effects appear driven entirely by adverse conditions: we find strong electoral reactions in areas actually experiencing employment declines, but no significant response where conditions improve, consistent with a protest voting framework. Third, while regional-national partisan alignment slightly moderates effect magnitudes, national accountability for economic performance largely dominates the local electoral reaction.地方就业动态对选举行为的因果影响是什么？我们整合了意大利2008、2013、2018及2022年四次全国选举的劳动力市场区域层面数据，并采用偏移份额工具变量（IV）估计设计，以识别由就业率变化所捕捉的地方劳动力市场状况如何影响选民参与率与现任者支持率。基准估计结果显示：就业率每下降1个百分点（p.p.），投票率显著提升0.76个百分点，而现任者得票率则下降0.80个百分点。进一步分析揭示了关键的细微差异：其一，通过探究中介效应，我们发现劳动力市场状况恶化引发的更高投票率，经由参与渠道解释了对现任者支持率总负面影响的约四分之一；其二，效应完全由不利条件驱动——实际经历就业下滑的地区呈现强烈选举反应，而条件改善的地区无显著响应，这与抗议投票框架相符；其三，尽管区域-国家层面的党派一致性略微缓和了效应强度，但经济表现的国家问责制在很大程度上主导了地方选举反应。